Ich prüfe, ob die NASA für den 21.12.2012 einen Asteroiden auf Kollisionskurs vorhersagt … und entdecke etwas Überraschendes


http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/ca/ : …………..

 

 

 

UPCOMING CLOSE APPROACHES TO EARTH
1 AU = ~150 million kilometers
1 LD = Lunar Distance = ~384,000 kilometers

Object
Name
Close
Approach
Date
CA
Distance*
(AU)
CA
Distance*
(LD)
Estimated
Diameter**
H
(mag)
Relative
Velocity
(km/s)
(2011 LT17)  2012-Dec-18 0.1226 47.7 120 m – 270 m 21.7 16.54
(2012 XD133)  2012-Dec-18 0.1053 41.0 110 m – 240 m 22.0 8.88
(1999 NW2)  2012-Dec-19 0.1695 66.0 62 m – 140 m 23.1 5.31
(2012 VA5)  2012-Dec-19 0.1108 43.1 120 m – 260 m 21.8 9.35
(2012 QQ50)  2012-Dec-19 0.1470 57.2 310 m – 690 m 19.7 10.77
(2012 XE133)  2012-Dec-19 0.0551 21.4 52 m – 120 m 23.5 8.74
(2012 HK31)  2012-Dec-20 0.1807 70.3 22 m – 50 m 25.4 3.86
(2004 XL14)  2012-Dec-20 0.1962 76.3 150 m – 340 m 21.2 18.32
203471 (2002 AU4)  2012-Dec-21 0.1023 39.8 490 m – 1.1 km 18.7 11.92
(2004 JO1)  2012-Dec-22 0.1975 76.9 190 m – 440 m 20.7 17.87
163899 (2003 SD220)  2012-Dec-23 0.1536 59.8 1.1 km – 2.5 km 16.9 10.18
33342 (1998 WT24)  2012-Dec-23 0.1779 69.2 700 m – 1.6 km 17.9 14.85
(2012 XM55)  2012-Dec-23 0.0078 3.0 7.2 m – 16 m 27.8 2.87
162911 (2001 LL5)  2012-Dec-24 0.1571 61.1 420 m – 940 m 19.0 8.75
(2009 LD)  2012-Dec-24 0.1590 61.9 16 m – 35 m 26.2 5.65
(2010 BB)  2012-Dec-26 0.0555 21.6 270 m – 590 m 20.0 9.53
(2000 WL63)  2012-Dec-26 0.1772 69.0 310 m – 680 m 19.7 10.35
(2012 XP55)  2012-Dec-27 0.0235 9.1 42 m – 94 m 24.0 14.04
(2011 HS60)  2012-Dec-28 0.1770 68.9 130 m – 290 m 21.5 16.39
(2012 VF37)  2012-Dec-28 0.0388 15.1 170 m – 370 m 21.0 12.76
(2003 UC20)  2012-Dec-29 0.0659 25.7 600 m – 1.3 km 18.2 8.01
(2012 XQ111)  2012-Dec-30 0.1918 74.6 39 m – 87 m 24.2 5.42
(2010 XW58)  2013-Jan-02 0.1498 58.3 31 m – 68 m 24.7 11.20
(2011 AC3)  2013-Jan-04 0.1889 73.5 90 m – 200 m 22.3 23.94
(2012 TJ146)  2013-Jan-04 0.0825 32.1 190 m – 440 m 20.7 8.47
(2012 QO10)  2013-Jan-05 0.1203 46.8 460 m – 1.0 km 18.8 9.36
(2012 XD112)  2013-Jan-05 0.0727 28.3 160 m – 360 m 21.1 11.76
(2012 BD14)  2013-Jan-06 0.1719 66.9 13 m – 30 m 26.5 5.02
(2012 XZ132)  2013-Jan-07 0.0517 20.1 30 m – 68 m 24.7 7.52
(2005 DD)  2013-Jan-07 0.0996 38.8 250 m – 550 m 20.2 13.34
(2002 AY1)  2013-Jan-07 0.0381 14.8 200 m – 440 m 20.6 17.35
99942 Apophis  2013-Jan-09 0.0967 37.6 270 m 19.7 4.09
(2012 XP111)  2013-Jan-10 0.1410 54.9 50 m – 110 m 23.6 3.91
(2003 YS17)  2013-Jan-10 0.1628 63.4 130 m – 290 m 21.6 14.70
(2012 XE112)  2013-Jan-11 0.1219 47.5 200 m – 440 m 20.7 7.79
(1999 LS7)  2013-Jan-13 0.1806 70.3 190 m – 430 m 20.7 14.10
343098 (2009 DV42)  2013-Jan-13 0.1944 75.7 530 m – 1.2 km 18.5 10.69
(2012 XF112)  2013-Jan-14 0.1916 74.6 300 m – 670 m 19.7 7.91
(2011 KW15)  2013-Jan-14 0.1016 39.5 320 m – 720 m 19.6 19.88
(2012 UW68)  2013-Jan-15 0.0476 18.5 28 m – 63 m 24.9 2.44
(1999 UR)  2013-Jan-20 0.1965 76.5 140 m – 310 m 21.4 14.53
(2011 TO)  2013-Jan-21 0.0864 33.6 15 m – 33 m 26.3 6.28
(2005 XV77)  2013-Jan-25 0.1608 62.6 200 m – 450 m 20.6 11.79
(2006 YT13)  2013-Jan-25 0.1927 75.0 590 m – 1.3 km 18.3 21.69
(2008 OT7)  2013-Jan-27 0.1298 50.5 10.0 m – 22 m 27.1 13.41
(2011 BY10)  2013-Jan-28 0.0548 21.3 9.4 m – 21 m 27.3 9.40
(2011 UD21)  2013-Feb-01 0.1089 42.4 5.3 m – 12 m 28.5 4.48
230111 (2001 BE10)  2013-Feb-02 0.1908 74.2 420 m – 950 m 19.0 10.83
177049 (2003 EE16)  2013-Feb-02 0.1468 57.1 290 m – 650 m 19.8 23.53
(2008 SW11)  2013-Feb-03 0.1900 73.9 160 m – 350 m 21.1 17.41
(2003 BN4)  2013-Feb-04 0.0703 27.4 31 m – 70 m 24.6 3.22
(1999 HA2)  2013-Feb-05 0.1491 58.0 800 m – 1.8 km 17.6 15.08
(2002 LY1)  2013-Feb-08 0.0741 28.8 120 m – 270 m 21.7 12.98
3752 Camillo  2013-Feb-12 0.1478 57.5 2.1 km – 4.7 km 15.5 28.82
(2012 US9)  2013-Feb-13 0.1619 63.0 130 m – 280 m 21.6 7.98
(2008 CQ116)  2013-Feb-14 0.1939 75.5 50 m – 110 m 23.6 15.72
(2006 DD1)  2013-Feb-14 0.0940 36.6 13 m – 29 m 26.5 20.14
137805 (1999 YK5)  2013-Feb-15 0.1263 49.1 1.3 km – 2.9 km 16.6 20.21
(1999 VF22)  2013-Feb-15 0.1454 56.6 210 m – 470 m 20.5 29.76
(2012 DA14)  2013-Feb-15 0.0002 0.09 35 m – 79 m 24.4 7.78

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ich entdecke hier für den  15. Februar 2013 :

0.09 LD sind etwa 34.000 km.

Erdradius : 6370 km,

Trefferwahrscheinlichkeit beim übernächsten oder späterem Encounter/Vorbeiflug zB  1 : 25 ????

35 m – 79 m Durchmesser entspricht bei Impact/Treffer mit Erde  etwa einer 1 bis 10 Megatonnen Wasserstoffbombe, vergleichbar mit dem Barringerkrater in den USA und dem http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event

Auch das wäre kein globaler oder kontinentaler Schaden.

http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2012%20DA14;orb=1

data-arc span      79 days  

Man kennt das Orbit bei 79 Beobachtungstagen dann wohl gut :

Small perturbers: Ceres, Pallas, Vesta            {source: SB405-CPV-2}

Bis auf diese Störungen ...

Möglicherweise ist   Asteroid (2012 DA14) in einem von mir „stabile Resonanz“ genanntem Orbit,

d.h. seine Umlaufzeit ist ganzzahlig in Jahren.

Das deutet auf einen sicheren Treffer irgendwann hin.

Möglicherweise gibt es noch keine Vorausberechnung/Animation.

http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2012%20DA14;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=1#cad :

2013-Feb-15 19:25 00:02 Earth 0.000233799507126153 0.000181313271702344 0.000353865810509171 7.78009878225669 6.14305139573094 2456339.309620716 2.8256

 

2,85 min = 170 sec Zeitfehler machen bei V = 7,78 km/sec Vrel etwa 1200 km Berechnungsfehler aus

…. also Entwarnung bei 36.000 km Vorbeiflug.

 

Interessant scheint mir, dass 2012 DA14 seit 6 Jahren fast auf den Tag genau am 15. Februar kommt.

 

Das ist kein Zufall und spricht dafür, dass dieses NEO irgendwann trifft

Woher hat man die Zahlen für Feb 1918,1919 und 1920 ? …wohl kaum beobachtet…eher zurückgerechnet

 

Gibt es eine Vorausberechnung des Orbits/der Flugbahn von 2012 DA14  ?

 

webmaster@ssd.jpl.nasa.gov

Science - Science Team

Donald K. Yeomans
Institution: Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Role: Dynamics
Address: Jet Propulsion Laboratory, MS 183-501
4800 Oak Grove Dr.
Pasadena CA 91109-8099

Phone: +1 818 354 2127
Email: donald.k.yeomans@jpl.nasa.gov
Organization website: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/index.cfm

The JPL HORIZONS on-line solar system data and ephemeris computation service provides access to key solar system data and flexible production of highly accurate ephemerides for solar system objects ( 601198 asteroids, 3179 comets, 176 planetary satellites, 8 planets, the Sun, L1, L2, select spacecraft, and system barycenters ). HORIZONS is provided by the Solar System Dynamics Group of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Gesendet: Mittwoch, 19. Dezember 2012 um 12:27 Uhr
Von: „Rainer Schottlaender“ <rainer.schottlaender@web.de>
An: donald.k.yeomans@jpl.nasa.gov
Cc: iau@iap.fr
Betreff: Good morning Donald Yeomans
Have you already performed/published an orbit prediction for 2012DA14 ?
0,09 LD took my attention.
I learn:
# obs. used (total)      188  
   data-arc span      79 days  
   first obs. used      2012-02-23  
   last obs. used      2012-05-12
2009-Feb-17 06:36 00:07 Earth 0.168561006054154 0.16815613986995 0.168965446073864 5.80072775794691 5.79800207835642 2454879.775661518 7.15230677914936 12523.0478731364 19.2628934599445 -2.3272400656016 24231.6761344042 T 35 CATAB v2.0c-linF95 2012-May-13 02:58:16 2012-May-13 03:00
2010-Feb-14 10:01 < 00:01 Earth 0.1147807448169 0.114489059778223 0.115072203951982 5.44570334526255 5.44143893074995 2455241.917981785 0.441380599846334 7567.35908740557 7.46542857185758 -0.0679849075165104 1052.36199388294 T 35 CATAB v2.0c-linF95 2012-May-13 02:58:16 2012-May-13 03:00
2011-Feb-14 21:31 00:01 Earth 0.063172923907535 0.0630111365786561 0.063334634907985 5.50975267870538 5.50209228160584 2455607.397036547 1.53560164400634 3936.35634658474 3.23049052125843 0.382147977219134 6747.54195470458 T 35 CATAB v2.0c-linF95 2012-May-13 02:58:16 2012-May-13 03:00
2012-Feb-16 06:10 < 00:01 Earth 0.017425699560338 0.0174177045482088 0.0174336935431791 5.93217931376987 5.90634752596216 2455973.757143227 0.0907163784810694 331.743221625336 1.96466389691376 -0.370071939213628 3773.79320475637 T 35 CATAB v2.0c-linF95 2012-May-13 02:58:16 2012-May-13 03:00
2013-Feb-15 19:25 00:02 Earth 0.000233799507126153 0.000181313271702344 0.000353865810509171 7.78009878225669 6.14305139573094 2456339.309620716 2.82567459791921 4106.8436033854 2.02828359739494 -54.7792282890397 5448.15719216798 T 35 CATAB v2.0c-linF95 2012-May-13 02:58:16 2012-May-13 03:00
2013-Feb-16 00:44 00:10 Moon 0.00274582532035966 0.00260897047648501 0.00289595875366623 6.5497150485791 6.54789247976614 2456339.530959110 10.8
I guess you have calculated this orbit for the past:
1918-Feb-17 02:32 05:18 Moon 0.0043280774938935 0.00100767907845883 0.0199025991232648 5.9517779684331 5.95050556892481 2421641.606026974 318.905884143445 681126.315301695 10.8744184371681 13.579533528569 12827.4860510117 T 35 CATAB v2.0c-linF95 2012-May-13 02:58:16 2012-May-13 03:00
1918-Feb-17 04:19 04:44 Earth 0.00229059524102013 0.00143499655699562 0.0173558507113047 6.30607415946693 6.1188332094579 2421641.679923459 284.243978641166 361221.706165369 3.38216910845682 39.7359402412813 30228.6513738263 T 35 CATAB v2.0c-linF95 2012-May-13 02:58:16 2012-May-13 03:00
1919-Feb-18 14:26 16:47 Earth 0.0336408149487564 0.00132461670633472 0.0853668525565237 6.70201334760561 6.69018500300221 2422008.102041483 1007.19237183841 1545006.61500159 2.6653145615721 -2.20997307247147 35135.9178829881 T 35 CATAB v2.0c-linF95 2012-May-13 02:58:16 2012-May-13 03:00
1920-Feb-20 22:06 19:36 Earth 0.0883026541805504 0.0121656869115419 0.150307051491316 7.8035043864066 7.79963665276647 2422375.421489303 1176.96818646493 2234849.86855186 3.45079550794479 -1.04722470331593 38278.5415666347 T 35 CATAB v2.0c-linF95 2012-May-13 02:58:16 2012-May-13 03:00
1921-Feb-22 19:20 19:05 Earth 0.149897943310298 0.0719994002605683 0.217800927925418 9.23510819955989 9.23318324733158 2422743.306175917 1145.49344152541 2814042.98767171 4.90947447813671 -1.0220448412764 50684.3555855394 T 35 CATAB v2.0c-linF95 2012-May-13 02:58:16 2012-May-13 03:00
1922-Feb-25 18:55 17:00 Earth 0.21501974075296 0.138288487962664 0.286586862624145 10.8975844805877 10.8964473078598 2423111.288257121 1020.
It seems to me that this 2012DA14 is in resonance and could hit earth f.i. within the next some ten or hundred years.
Gesendet: Mittwoch, 19. Dezember 2012 um 18:01 Uhr
Von: „Rainer Schottlaender“ <rainer.schottlaender@web.de>
An: …..
Betreff: es ist zwar ziemlich unwahrscheinlich …
… dass ausgerechnet ich bereits mit 2012DA14 richtig liege
Ich rechne damit, dass noch in diesem Jahrhundert das erste NEO früherkannt wird,

das tatsächlich die Erde trifft.
Du erkennst an dieser Tabelle: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/ca/  dass man für 2013 etwa 250 bekannte NEOs erwartet.
Plus die jährlich neu entdeckten – das sind nach meiner Schätzung bei gleichem Finanzaufwand
ca. 1000 seit 1990 : 20 Jahre = ca. 50 mehr jedes Jahr
2014 also etwa 300 usw.
Ich lerne aus der Tabelle, das heute pi mal Daumen ein entdeckter Vorbeiflug in 50 LD = ca. 20 Mio km erfolgt
Das sind ca.3000 Erdradien.
Die Trefferwahrscheinlichkeit wäre dann …….. pi mal zwei Daumen………….. 1: 10 Millionen täglich.
Nach momentanem Stand der Beobachtungstechnik.
10 Mio Tage sind etwa 30.000 Jahre.
In 6 Jahren wären das dann 15000 Jahre.
Tägliche Mikrometeoriten beweisen, dass das „Treffer“  eine Frage des NEO-Durchmessers ist.
 
Es kommt aber noch ein wichtiger, mir und evt auch den NASA-Experten theoretisch noch unklarer Effekt dazu :
Wenn es die von mir vermutete „Resonanz“ gibt, dürfte sich für solche NEOs die WS erhöhen.
Überlege:
Wenn die 80 NEOs dieser Tabelle durchschnittlich die 20 Mio km-Zielscheibe treffen,
dann wäre Gleichverteilung nur etwa ein Vorbeiflug innerhalb von 5 LD
Es ist sehr unwahrscheinlich, dass ein 0,1 LD-Vorbeiflug passiert.
Pi mal drei Daumen meine These:
(5 LD : 0,1 LD)^2 = 2500
30.000 Jahre  : 2500  = 12 Jahre …
RECENT CLOSE APPROACHES TO EARTH
1 AU = ~150 million kilometers
1 LD = Lunar Distance = ~384,000 kilometers 

Object
Name
Close
Approach
Date
CA
Distance*
(AU)
CA
Distance*
(LD)
Estimated
Diameter**
H
(mag)
Relative
Velocity
(km/s)
(2011 OB57)  2012-Dec-14 0.1660 64.6 17 m – 37 m 26.0 4.93
(2012 XP134)  2012-Dec-15 0.0031 1.2 7.8 m – 17 m 27.7 8.84
(2012 XL134)  2012-Dec-15 0.0018 0.7 7.2 m – 16 m 27.8 10.04
(2012 XH112)  2012-Dec-15 0.0044 1.7 11 m – 24 m 26.9 14.40
88213 (2001 AF2)  2012-Dec-15 0.1812 70.5 440 m – 990 m 18.9 21.31
(2012 XM16)  2012-Dec-16 0.0080 3.1 19 m – 42 m 25.8 13.00
(2002 XQ40)  2012-Dec-17 0.1199 46.6 97 m – 220 m 22.2 14.61
(2004 YA5)  2012-Dec-17 0.0597 23.2 81 m – 180 m 22.6 20.23
(2011 LT17)  2012-Dec-18 0.1226 47.7 120 m – 270 m 21.7 16.54
(2012 XD133)  2012-Dec-18 0.1054 41.0 99 m – 220 m 22.1 8.88

 

* Close Approach (CA) Distance is the distance between the Earth center and asteroid center.
** Diameter estimates based on the object’s absolute magnitude.

Wenn ich diese Tabelle für eine grobe Abschätzung heranziehe, ist ein Vorbeiflug täglich der 10-m-Klasse in 1 LD realistisch.
1 LD = 384.400 km sind etwa 60 Erdradien, ins Quadrat 3600.
Demnach trifft ein solches kleineres NEO alle zehn Jahre.
Ich erinnere mich dunkel, dass ich während der Arbeit an meinem proposal vom Juli 1990 „Asteroid and comet detection and deflection“
auf eine Arbeit von WETHERILL von ca. 1982 stiess, wonach etwa alle 100.000 Jahre
durch Zusammenstoss im Asteroidengürtel zwischen Jupiter und Mars  ein NEO der 1-km-Durchmesserklasse entsteht.
Ein NEO lebt wohl einige tausend bis hunderttausend Jahre und stirbt in der Reihenfolge der Wahrscheinlichkeit
– in der Sonne
– auf Merkur, Venus, Erde, Erdmond oder Mars.
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/stats/ :
Near Earth Object Program
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NEO Discovery Statistics

 

NEAR-EARTH ASTEROID DISCOVERY STATISTICS
Some entries in the following charts and tables are dependent upon a diameter that is roughly inferred from the object’s estimated absolute magnitude (H) and its assumed reflectivity, or albedo. The absolute magnitude (H) of a near-Earth asteroid (NEA) is a measure of the object’s brightness one astronomical unit from the sun and Earth and at zero phase angle (i.e., the angle between the sun and Earth, as seen from the NEA, is zero). The absolute magnitude (H) for a particular NEA is computed from the observed apparent magnitudes of the object at various times when the phase angles and the distances from the sun and Earth are known. An effective diameter is the diameter of a hypothetical spherical NEA that would provide the same apparent brightness as the observed NEA, whose actual shape is unknown.Since most NEAs do not have a known reflectivity, or albedo, this albedo must be estimated before the H values, representing intrinsic brightness, can be converted to an approximate diameter. Pravec et al (2012) determined that, for their sample of 583 main-belt asteroids and NEAs, the mean albedos and their standard deviations are 0.057 (±0.013) for the Tholen/Bus/DeMeo C/G/B/F/P/D types and 0.197 (±0.051) for the S/A/L types. Since the albedos for NEAs are most likely to be either approximately 6% for asteroids of the C-type and associated taxonomic classes or 20% for asteroids of the more populous S-type and associated taxonomic classes, we have used an approximate mean value of 14% albedo and an H value of 17.75 to represent a one kilometer spherical NEA. Since the determined H values are uncertain, and likely biased by a few tenths (see Pravec et al., 2012, Icarus) and the single 14% albedo is only a rough mean representing a bimodal albedo distribution, the estimated numbers of one kilometer and larger sized objects in the tables below are very rough. However, these statistics are useful for monitoring the annual NEA discovery progress.

Using near-infrared data provided by the WISE spacecraft in 2010 and early 2011, Mainzer et al (2011) were able to determine diameters and albedos for 250 NEAs with a minimum uncertainty of 10% and 20% respectively. Hence they were able to determine the albedo distribution of these objects with known diameters and this distribution was then used to compute diameters for previously known NEOs with known H values but unknown diameters or albedos. They provided an estimate of 981 (±19) NEAs as the total population of NEAs one kilometer and larger. At the time of their analysis (Spring 2011), they also estimated that 911 (±17) of these large NEAs had already been discovered. While this latter estimate is both higher and more accurate than the estimated numbers given for Spring 2011 in the following tables, this statistical technique cannot be easily employed for day-to-day estimates of the population of NEAs one kilometer and larger. In the following tables, we will continue to use the simpler method described in the previous paragraph.

Mainzer, A. et al. (2011). NEOWISE observations of near-Earth objects: Preliminary Results. Astrophysical Journal. 743:156.

Pravec, P., A.W. Harris, P. Kusnirak, A. Galad, K. Hornoch (2012). Absolute magnitudes of asteroids and a revision of asteroid albedo estimates from WISE thermal observations. Icarus (submitted 6/2012).

Stuart, J.S. (2003). Observational constraints on the number, albedos, sizes and impact hazards of the near-Earth asteroids. Ph.D. thesis, MIT.

 

All Asteroids

Table: Number of Near-Earth Asteroid Discoveries at Half-Year Intervals: All Asteroids

Table 1. NEAs Discovered by Site

Half Year
Intervals
LINEAR
(704)
NEAT
(566,608,644)
Spacewatch
(691,291)
LONEOS
(699)
Catalina
(703,E12,G96)
Pan-STARRS
(F51)
Other Cumulative
Total
 1995 (1) 0 0 14 0 0 0 4 334
 1995 (2) 0 0 12 0 0 0 2 348
 1996 (1) 1 5 18 0 0 0 4 376
 1996 (2) 0 5 10 0 0 0 2 393
 1997 (1) 3 2 10 0 0 0 4 412
 1997 (2) 14 9 4 0 0 0 7 446
 1998 (1) 44 9 19 1 1 0 7 527
 1998 (2) 92 2 16 6 2 0 5 650
 1999 (1) 74 0 12 6 11 0 1 754
 1999 (2) 87 0 7 7 19 0 3 877
 2000 (1) 108 2 14 21 13 0 4 1039
 2000 (2) 150 13 12 17 0 0 8 1239
 2001 (1) 95 28 7 22 0 0 2 1393
 2001 (2) 184 64 15 20 0 0 4 1680
 2002 (1) 158 56 16 14 1 0 6 1931
 2002 (2) 128 89 6 7 0 0 5 2166
 2003 (1) 102 30 23 33 0 0 9 2363
 2003 (2) 133 38 33 21 8 0 8 2604
 2004 (1) 167 19 41 14 25 0 6 2876
 2004 (2) 137 7 29 25 60 0 6 3140
 2005 (1) 78 8 29 22 116 0 10 3403
 2005 (2) 59 30 54 19 193 0 10 3768
 2006 (1) 44 4 45 13 197 0 3 4074
 2006 (2) 52 18 54 7 199 0 5 4409
 2007 (1) 38 4 20 7 200 0 3 4681
 2007 (2) 74 0 25 5 266 0 7 5058
 2008 (1) 74 0 43 1 281 0 5 5462
 2008 (2) 66 0 43 0 278 0 11 5860
 2009 (1) 50 0 32 0 261 0 18 6221
 2009 (2) 58 0 31 0 314 0 17 6641
 2010 (1) 29 0 21 0 257 0 97 7045
 2010 (2) 75 0 22 0 345 18 52 7557
 2011 (1) 40 0 17 0 332 68 14 8028
 2011 (2) 30 0 15 0 253 105 23 8454
 2012 (1) 25 0 13 0 353 120 7 8972
 2012 (2)* 26 0 13 0 274 121 24 9430

* Incomplete half-year (based on discovery data through 2012-Dec-19 06:05 local)

 

Large Asteroids

Table: Number of Near-Earth Asteroid Discoveries at Half-Year Intervals: Large Asteroids

Table 2. Large NEAs Discovered by Site

Half Year
Intervals
LINEAR
(704)
NEAT
(566,608,644)
Spacewatch
(691,291)
LONEOS
(699)
Catalina
(703,E12,G96)
Pan-STARRS
(F51)
Other Cumulative
Total
 1995 (1) 0 0 3 0 0 0 2 178
 1995 (2) 0 0 4 0 0 0 1 183
 1996 (1) 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 187
 1996 (2) 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 189
 1997 (1) 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 193
 1997 (2) 2 3 1 0 0 0 2 201
 1998 (1) 8 4 2 1 0 0 2 218
 1998 (2) 24 2 1 3 0 0 3 251
 1999 (1) 16 0 2 4 4 0 0 277
 1999 (2) 24 0 1 1 2 0 2 307
 2000 (1) 31 2 1 1 4 0 1 347
 2000 (2) 39 2 3 5 0 0 4 400
 2001 (1) 24 8 0 4 0 0 0 436
 2001 (2) 25 5 0 4 0 0 1 471
 2002 (1) 32 4 2 3 0 0 1 513
 2002 (2) 21 11 0 1 0 0 1 547
 2003 (1) 15 3 1 6 0 0 2 574
 2003 (2) 17 5 1 4 2 0 1 604
 2004 (1) 16 5 1 2 3 0 1 632
 2004 (2) 9 1 0 1 13 0 0 656
 2005 (1) 10 0 2 1 9 0 1 679
 2005 (2) 6 5 5 0 10 0 1 706
 2006 (1) 3 0 2 1 9 0 0 721
 2006 (2) 1 0 3 0 12 0 0 737
 2007 (1) 2 0 3 0 9 0 1 752
 2007 (2) 5 0 1 0 7 0 0 765
 2008 (1) 2 0 1 0 8 0 0 776
 2008 (2) 3 0 1 0 5 0 0 785
 2009 (1) 1 0 0 0 8 0 0 794
 2009 (2) 6 0 0 0 6 0 2 808
 2010 (1) 0 0 1 0 5 0 3 817
 2010 (2) 1 0 0 0 1 0 4 823
 2011 (1) 1 0 0 0 6 1 0 831
 2011 (2) 0 0 1 0 6 4 0 842
 2012 (1) 0 0 0 0 9 1 0 852
 2012 (2)* 1 0 0 0 5 2 0 860

* Incomplete half-year (based on discovery data through 2012-Dec-19 06:05 local)
NOTE: In the year 2010, the „Other“ site category was exclusively WISE.
A separate table of WISE discoveries is available.

Data compiled by Alan Chamberlin.

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NEOS
NASA’s current search program is designed to discover 90% of the NEO population. A separate table containing WISE discoveries for NEAs and comets is available.

The chart below shows the cumulative total known near-Earth asteroids versus time. The blue area shows all near-Earth asteroids while the red area shows only large near-Earth asteroids (those with diameters roughly one kilometer and larger).
Table: Number of Known Near-Earth Asteroids Over Time
(click on the chart above for a larger version)

 

The chart below shows the total known near-Earth asteroids per size bin. Diameters are estimated using an assumed average albedo for NEAs. The first size bin represents NEAs smaller than 30m in diameter. The second represents NEAs with diameters from 30m to 100m, and so on.
Known Near-Earth Asteroids by Size Bin
Data shown in the chart above represent known NEAs as of the date shown in the bottom-right corner of the chart.

The table below shows the total number of NEOs known at selected dates. The most recent date at the top of the table is generally not the date the table was updated, but rather the discovery date of the most recently discovered NEO. Numbers for large asteroids (PHA-KM and NEA-KM) are rough estimates (see introductory note above). This table is updated daily using discovery data published by the Minor Planet Center.

 

Über schotti

* geb. 1949 in Berlin * 1967-1971 Physikstudium an der Humboldt-Universität Berlin * 1975 Diplom in München * 1976 wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter am MPI für Astrophysik in Garching * 1977-1978 Redakteur beim Elektronik Journal München * 1979-1988 Aufbau eines Bauhandwerkbetriebes in München * 1989-1990 Songwriter/Sänger in San Diego (USA) * 1991-heute eigenfinanzierte Forschungsarbeit in Berlin

16 Kommentare zu Ich prüfe, ob die NASA für den 21.12.2012 einen Asteroiden auf Kollisionskurs vorhersagt … und entdecke etwas Überraschendes

  1. schotti sagt:

    Its funny that people often put their head in the sand. I often observe this reaction in discussions about the world debt problem. F.i. about the fact that the US, Germany and the G-7 are bancrupt. Asteroids are a much smaller threat. 2012DA14 f.i would just generate another Barringer-crater. You know my still actual proposal from July 1990. NASA has wrongly evaluated it in 1990 (see letter of Dr. Jurgen Rahe). They have made a lot of progress in the last 20 years. I am sure that we will get a few warning shots within the next deades or centuries. Before a real big one hits. This is a natural law and does not depend of your, mine or anyones emotions. I publish this EMail here: http://www.schottie.de/?p=8979#respond

  2. schotti sagt:

    One of the ideas in my proposal A267 to DOD/SBIR and 91-502C to NASA
    was to improve this action :

    Already in the movie METEOR in the 70es USA and USSR send their
    intercontinental rockets to deflect an asteroid.

    On page 41 I calculate what happenes if we ignite an H-bomb
    – on the asteroid surface – after drilling a deep hole into the asteroid.

    This idea, published by me July 5, 1990, was used and probably stolen
    for the movie ARMAGEDDON from Jerry Bruckheimer and the WALT DISNEY COMPANY.

    My result was also published in Heft 2/1991 in ASTRONOMIE & RAUMFAHRT.

    The Walt Disney Company has not payed my invoice and refused in their letter
    from Dec 23, 2002 to tell me the name of the playbook writer
    and from where he got the idea.

    The reason why I do the work to put this here in writing
    is that we are able to avoid such an Armageddon. At the time when I
    wrote my proposal only about 50 NEOs were known.

    As you see here http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/stats/
    today about 900 large and 9000 small NEOs(NEAs) are known. As you learn
    in this statistic 121 of them were found by PAN STARRS.

    I have written to Mr. Kudritzki in Hawaii already 3 unanswered EMails
    that I have published the idea to build an automatized telescope
    checking every night 60 million stars
    already in the year 1990 in my proposal,
    which was wrongly evaluated by NASA , DOD and NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION .

    Compared with other less important scientific tasks
    – 100 billions for a man on Mars ?? –
    there is still not enough attention and financial effort
    – a few million dollars each years – for this task.

    I think it makes sense to try out such a thermonuclear attack on an asteroid.

    More important is to find more of these NEOs.

    Would you accept that only a few cars in the USA have a number sign ? 🙂

    Copyright:

    http://www.schottie.de/?p=8979#comments

    http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/lists/PHACloseApp.html :

    1999 MN 2501737.76 2137 June 4.26 0.005483 … slingshot/naher Vorbeiflug/Delta V =
    1999 MN 2491875.93 2110 June 4.43 0.006795
    1999 MN 2505755.27 2148 June 3.77 0.009749
    1999 MN 2472517.86 2057 June 3.36 0.01594
    1999 MN 2462694.38 2030 July 11.88 0.01684
    1999 MN 2464848.49 2036 June 3.99 0.03177
    1999 MN 2470362.50 2051 July 10.00 0.03963
    1999 MN 2486034.38 2094 June 5.88 0.04412
    1999 MN 2509772.61 2159 June 4.11 0.03124
    1999 MN 2463019.54 2031 June 2.04 0.05974

    Apophis 2462240.40 2029 Apr. 13.90 0.0002634
    Apophis 2514106.26 2171 Apr. 15.76 0.002552
    Apophis 2511915.86 2165 Apr. 16.36 0.007609
    Apophis 2464790.22 2036 Apr. 6.72 0.093061
    Apophis 2485617.56 2093 Apr. 15.06 0.011219
    Apophis 2495479.58 2120 Apr. 16.08 0.011274
    Apophis 2475538.04 2065 Sept. 9.54 0.024674
    Apophis 2509868.32 2159 Sept. 7.82 0.029181

    http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/lists/CloseApp.html :

    Apophis 2456301.99 2013 Jan. 9.49 0.096662
    Apophis 2459279.55 2021 Mar. 6.05 0.112650
    Apophis 2462240.40 2029 Apr. 13.90 0.0002634

  3. schotti sagt:

    http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/lists/CloseApp.html

    http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/lists/PHACloseApp.html

    Object (and name) Date of encounter (TT) Distance Orbit arc Reference Object (and name)
    JD Calendar (AU)
    (99942) Apophis 2462240.40 2029 Apr. 13.90 0.0002634 2 oppositions, 2004-2012 E2012-J15 (99942) Apophis
    2002 QW47 2515295.71 2174 July 18.21 0.001472 2 oppositions, 2002-2005 E2011-X18 2002 QW47
    2007 YV56 2488435.71 2101 Jan. 2.21 0.001660 4 oppositions, 2007-2012 E2012-B99 2007 YV56
    (153814) 2001 WN5 2461948.72 2028 June 26.22 0.001663 7 oppositions,

  4. schotti sagt:

    Betreff: to Donald Yeomans and IAU because of 2012 DA 14

    These 0.0003 AU = 45.000 km = about 7 x earth radius of 6370 km

    2012 DA14 2456339.31 2013 Feb. 15.81 0.0003012

    show an impact probability of about 1 : 50, maybe in this century.

    So I did a quick scroll thru these about 9000 predictions:
    http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/lists/CloseApp.html
    (This list was last updated on 2012 Dec. 20)
    and find just this one encounter as in your other list.
    Maybe I am wrong …. 9000 lines … 🙂

    Is the prediction of this orbit in work ?

    Gibt es eine Vorausberechnung des Orbits/der Flugbahn von 2012 DA14 ?

    to webmaster@ssd.jpl.nasa.gov and the

    Science – Science Team
    Donald K. Yeomans
    Institution: Jet Propulsion Laboratory
    Role: Dynamics
    Address: Jet Propulsion Laboratory, MS 183-501
    4800 Oak Grove Dr.
    Pasadena CA 91109-8099

    Phone: +1 818 354 2127
    Email: donald.k.yeomans@jpl.nasa.gov
    Organization website: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/index.cfm

    The JPL HORIZONS on-line solar system data and ephemeris computation service provides access to key solar system data and flexible production of highly accurate ephemerides for solar system objects ( 601198 asteroids, 3179 comets, 176 planetary satellites, 8 planets, the Sun, L1, L2, select spacecraft, and system barycenters ). HORIZONS is provided by the Solar System Dynamics Group of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

    Gesendet: Mittwoch, 19. Dezember 2012 um 12:27 Uhr
    Von: ”Rainer Schottlaender”
    An: donald.k.yeomans@jpl.nasa.gov
    Cc: iau@iap.fr

    Betreff: Good morning Donald Yeomans
    Have you already performed/published an orbit prediction for 2012DA14 ?

    0,09 LD took my attention.

    So I looked deeper into this
    http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2012%20DA14;orb=1
    and
    http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2012%20DA14;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=1#cad

    I learn:

    # obs. used (total) 188
    data-arc span 79 days
    first obs. used 2012-02-23
    last obs. used 2012-05-12 …………………..

  5. schotti sagt:

    http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/lists/Closest.html

    Closest Approaches to the Earth by Minor Planets

    The following table lists, in order of increasing nominal geocentric distance, the closest known approaches to the earth by minor planets. In order to qualify for this listing, the approach must have occurred during an observed apparition, although in some cases the object was not under observation at the time of closest approach.

    Please read our Web policy document.

    A list of closest cometary approaches to the earth is also available.

    The dates of closest approach are given in Terrestrial Time (TT), although at the precision of this table they can be considered to be in Universal Time (UT). For comparison, the mean distance of the moon is 0.0026 AU = 384400 km = 238900 miles. (1 AU is approximately the mean distance of the earth from the sun and is equal to 149597870 km = 92955810 miles.) Also shown is the absolute magnitude, H, for each object: a table relating this quantity to the diameter is available.

    Distance Date (TT) Permanent designation Provisional H Reference
    (AU) designation

    0.000043! 2008 Oct. 7.11 2008 TC3 30.4 MPEC 2008-T50 … This approach took 2008 TC3 into the earth’s atmosphere.
    0.000079 2011 Feb. 4.82 2011 CQ1 32.1 MPEC 2011-C12
    0.000086* 2004 Mar. 31.65 2004 FU162 28.7 MPEC 2004-Q22
    0.000090 2008 Oct. 9.14 2008 TS26 33.2 MPEC 2008-T119
    0.000125 2011 June 27.71 2011 MD 28.0 MPEC 2011-M23
    0.000136 2009 Nov. 6.92 2009 VA 28.6 MPEC 2009-V22
    0.000206 2008 Oct. 20.97 2008 US 31.6 MPEC 2008-U32
    0.000226 2004 Dec. 19.86 2004 YD5 29.3 MPEC 2004-Y35
    0.000260 2010 Nov. 17.16 2010 WA 30.0 MPEC 2010-W03
    0.000307 2008 Nov. 3.94 2008 VM 30.2 MPEC 2008-V19
    0.000328 2004 Mar. 18.92 2004 FH 25.7 MPEC 2004-F24
    0.000355 2010 Nov. 30.75 2010 XB 29.4 MPEC 2010-X12
    0.000360 2010 Oct. 12.45

  6. schotti sagt:

    Gesendet: Sonntag, 23. Dezember 2012 um 15:01 Uhr
    Von: „Rainer Schottlaender“
    An: webmaster@ssd.jpl.nasa.gov, iau@iap.fr, donald.k.yeomans@jpl.nasa.gov, juergen.helfricht@bild.de
    Betreff: How you explain this … Donald Yeomans and IAU ?

    http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/lists/Closest.html

    50 close approx … 0.001 AU
    70……………………..0.002
    59……………………..0.003
    58……………………..0.004
    51……………………..0.005
    63……………………..0.006
    52……………………..0.007
    56……………………..0.008
    47……………………..0.009
    52……………………..0.010 AU

    On the first look this is against all odds – because the target area 0.01 ^2 is 100 times bigger than 0.001 ^2

    I guess the reason is that the probability to discover a close approach declines with distance exp -2

    Distance Date (TT) Permanent designation Provisional H Reference
    (AU) designation

    0.000043! 2008 Oct. 7.11 2008 TC3 30.4 MPEC 2008-T50
    0.000079 2011 Feb. 4.82 2011 CQ1 32.1 MPEC 2011-C12
    0.000086* 2004 Mar. 31.65 2004 FU162 28.7 MPEC 2004-Q22
    0.000090 2008 Oct. 9.14 2008 TS26 33.2 MPEC 2008-T119
    0.000125 2011 June 27.71 2011 MD 28.0 MPEC 2011-M23
    0.000136 2009 Nov. 6.92 2009 VA 28.6 MPEC 2009-V22
    0.000206 2008 Oct. 20.97 2008 US 31.6 MPEC 2008-U32
    0.000226 2004 Dec. 19.86 2004 YD5 29.3 MPEC 2004-Y35
    0.000260 2010 Nov. 17.16 2010 WA 30.0 MPEC 2010-W03
    0.000307 2008 Nov. 3.94 2008 VM 30.2 MPEC 2008-V19
    0.000328 2004 Mar. 18.92 2004 FH 25.7 MPEC 2004-F24
    0.000355 2010 Nov. 30.75 2010 XB 29.4 MPEC 2010-X12
    0.000360 2010 Oct. 12.45 2010 TD54 28.7 MPEC 2010-T65
    0.000383 2012 May 29.29 2012 KT42 29.0 MPEC 2012-K66
    0.000393 2012 May 28.64 2012 KP24 26.4 MPEC 2012-K52
    0.000432 2012 Mar. 26.72 2012 FS35 30.1 MPEC 2012-F81
    0.000443 2012 Jan. 27.64 2012 BX34 27.6 MPEC 2012-B65
    0.000466 2007 Oct. 17.64 2007 UN12 28.6 MPEC 2007-U84
    0.000472 2008 Oct. 22.17 2008 UM1 32.1 MPEC 2008-U40
    0.000483 2009 Mar. 2.57 2009 DD45 25.4 MPEC 2009-D80
    0.000492 2007 Sept. 5.05 2007 RS1 30.6 MPEC 2007-R21
    0.000528 2008 Mar. 10.32 2008 EF32 29.4 MPEC 2008-E91
    0.000531 2010 Sept. 8.88 2010 RF12 28.1 MPEC 2010-R41
    0.000560 2005 Nov. 26.02 2005 WN3 29.9 MPEC 2005-W65
    0.000564 2003 Sept.27.96 2003 SQ222 30.1 MPEC 2003-T03
    0.000568 2009 Mar. 18.51 2009 FH 26.6 MPEC 2009-F13
    0.000636 2009 Feb. 27.32 2009 EJ1 28.4 MPEC 2009-E35
    0.000637 2011 Apr. 6.82 2011 GP28 29.4 MPEC 2011-G38
    0.000665 2007 Dec. 13.17 2007 XB23 27.1 MPEC 2007-X61
    0.000693 2011 Feb. 9.81 2011 CA7 30.3 MPEC 2011-C35
    0.000701 2011 Dec. 28.08 2011 YC40 29.7 MPEC 2011-Y68
    0.00072 1994 Dec. 9.79 1994 XM1 28.0 MPEC 1994-X05
    0.000732 2009 Sept.30.88 2009 TB 29.2 MPEC 2009-T07
    0.000732 2010 Oct. 16.47 2010 UE 29.6 MPEC 2010-U12
    0.000785 2006 Feb. 23.29 2006 DD1 26.5 MPEC 2006-D24
    0.000788 2002 Dec. 11.35 2002 XV90 25.0 MPEC 2002-Y29
    0.000802 2002 June 14.09 2002 MN 23.4 MPEC 2002-M14
    0.000820 2005 Oct. 10.18 2005 TK50 29.1 MPEC 2005-T87
    0.000860 2012 Feb. 20.96 2012 DY13 27.9 MPEC 2012-D47
    0.000861 2011 Sept.28.64 2011 TO 26.1 MPEC 2011-T15
    0.000862 2010 Jan. 13.53 2010 AL30 27.0 MPEC 2010-A59
    0.000864 2010 Nov. 2.75 2010 VN1 28.0 MPEC 2010-V49
    0.000876 2011 Mar. 7.14 2011 EY11 28.3 MPEC 2011-E29
    0.000901 2008 Feb. 5.29 2008 CT1 27.7 MPEC 2008-C32
    0.000915 2011 Jan. 25.26 2011 BW11 28.4 MPEC 2011-B36
    0.000937 2011 Oct. 28.74 2011 UX255 27.4 MPEC 2011-U112
    0.000959 2007 Oct. 12.42 2007 TX22 28.4 MPEC 2007-T71
    0.000963 2005 Mar. 18.91 2005 FN 26.9 MPEC 2005-F24
    0.00099 1993 May 20.86 1993 KA2 29.0 IAUC 5817
    0.000991 2003 Dec. 6.79 2003 XJ7 25.7 MPEC 2003-X30

    0.00101 2009 Nov. 24.83 2009 WV51 27.1 MPEC 2009-W75
    0.00107 2006 Aug. 31.90 2006 QM111 30.5 MPEC 2006-Q68
    0.00107 2012 Mar. 26.24 2012 FP35 27.9 MPEC 2012-F78
    0.00108 2003 Sept.19.24 2003 SW130 29.2 MPEC 2003-S48
    0.00108 2008 Mar. 9.06 2008 EZ7 26.8 MPEC 2008-E67
    0.00108 2010 Oct. 9.03 2010 TW54 27.6 MPEC 2010-T88
    0.00111 2004 July 16.21 2004 OD4 26.7 MPEC 2004-O15
    0.00113 1994 Mar. 15.72 1994 ES1 28.5 MPEC 1994-E05
    0.00114 1991 Jan. 18.72 1991 BA 28.5 IAUC 5172
    0.00114 2008 Mar. 29.49 2008 FP 26.5 MPEC 2008-F48
    0.00115 2008 May 10.06 2008 JL24 29.5 MPEC 2008-J61
    0.00115 2011 July 28.36 2011 OD18 26.3 MPEC 2011-P01
    0.00116 2010 May 23.16 2010 KO10 26.8 MPEC 2010-K37
    0.00117 2008 July 29.29 2008 OT7 27.2 MPEC 2008-O56
    0.00119 2009 Nov. 20.46 2009 WJ6 27.5 MPEC 2009-W33
    0.00120 2007 Mar. 11.07 2007 EH 27.7 MPEC 2007-E34
    0.00122 2006 Oct. 21.11 2006 UE64 27.9 MPEC 2006-U55
    0.00125 2005 Oct. 30.01 2005 UW5 27.0 MPEC 2005-U84
    0.00128 2007 Oct. 18.81 2007 UD6 28.3 MPEC 2007-U49
    0.00129 2010 Nov. 29.95 2010 XR 26.7 MPEC 2010-X28
    0.00133 2011 Apr. 6.20 2011 GW9 28.1 MPEC 2011-G35
    0.00136 2012 May 13.56 2012 JU 28.3 MPEC 2012-J35
    0.00137 2006 Jan. 29.44 2006 BF56 29.5 MPEC 2006-B79
    0.00137 2009 Feb. 2.70 2009 CC2 27.8 MPEC 2009-C43
    0.00139 2008 Apr. 3.91 2008 GM2 28.3 MPEC 2008-G41
    0.00146 2005 Dec. 5.47 2005 XA8 26.1 MPEC 2005-X40
    0.00146 2007 Dec. 27.71 2007 YP56 25.8 MPEC 2008-A10
    0.00147 2007 Apr. 24.86 2007 HB15 27.8 MPEC 2007-H43
    0.00149 2007 Oct. 30.25 2007 US51 27.2 MPEC 2007-V04
    0.00150 2012 May 17.77 2012 KA 28.6 MPEC 2012-K02
    0.00152 2011 Oct. 12.80 2011 UT 25.9 MPEC 2011-U12
    0.00154 2012 Apr. 1.40 2012 EG5 24.2 MPEC 2012-E52
    0.00155 2006 Feb. 24.17 2006 DM63 26.7 MPEC 2006-D61
    0.00155 2012 Mar. 1.44 2012 EZ1 28.7 MPEC 2012-E26
    0.00156 2007 Nov. 14.14 2007 VF189 28.3 MPEC 2007-V109
    0.00159 2011 Sept.27.12 2011 SE58 27.6 MPEC 2011-S62
    0.00160 2004 Mar. 27.85 2004 FY15 26.1 MPEC 2004-F66
    0.00160 2008 Mar. 10.64 2008 EM68 27.5 MPEC 2008-E97
    0.00160 2012 Jan. 2.40 2011 YB63 29.8 MPEC 2012-A13
    0.00162 2011 Mar. 8.17 2011 EM40 27.9 MPEC 2011-E56
    0.00163 2010 Oct. 26.72 2010 UY7 28.5 MPEC 2010-V04
    0.00164 2010 Apr. 18.87 2010 HP20 27.5 MPEC 2010-H46
    0.00166 2008 Oct. 3.61 2008 TN9 27.8 MPEC 2008-T101
    0.00166 2010 Sept. 8.41 2010 RX30 27.1 MPEC 2010-R50
    0.00166 2011 Jan. 31.18 2011 CA4 27.0 MPEC 2011-C23
    0.00167 2010 May 26.90 2010 KV39 26.9 MPEC 2010-K55
    0.00169 2011 Mar. 3.37 2011 EN11 27.9 MPEC 2011-E26
    0.00173 2009 Oct. 5.49 2009 TD17 27.7 MPEC 2009-U61
    0.00177 2005 Jan. 13.43 2005 BS1 27.4 MPEC 2005-B20
    0.00177 2007 Mar. 13.23 2007 EK 29.6 MPEC 2007-E37
    0.00177 2009 May 13.90 2009 JL2 26.1 MPEC 2009-J53
    0.00178 2010 Sept.30.67 2010 SK13 27.4 MPEC 2010-S61
    0.00178 2011 Oct. 26.10 2011 UL169 28.3 MPEC 2011-U94
    0.00179 2006 Oct. 30.70 2006 UJ185 27.9 MPEC 2006-U73
    0.00180 2011 Dec. 29.36 2012 AQ 30.7 MPEC 2012-A15
    0.00181 2006 Mar. 8.64 2006 EC 26.6 MPEC 2006-E11
    0.00185 2004 Apr. 18.01 2004 HE 26.7 MPEC 2004-H16
    0.00185 2006 June 14.23 2006 RH120 29.5 MPEC 2008-D12
    0.00188 2003 Oct. 12.07 2003 UM3 28.1 MPEC 2003-U12
    0.00188 2006 July 23.45 2006 OK3 27.0 MPEC 2006-O22
    0.00188 2012 Apr. 19.49 2012 HM13 28.1 MPEC 2012-H57
    0.00190 2009 June 1.42 2009 KR21 26.4 MPEC 2009-K78
    0.00192 2010 Nov. 2.11 2010 UJ7 25.6 MPEC 2010-U59
    0.00192 2011 Feb. 23.79 2011 DU9 26.6 MPEC 2011-D47
    0.00194 2010 Nov. 13.59 2010 VC140 27.8 MPEC 2010-V147
    0.00194 2011 Sept.30.71 2011 SM173 27.7 MPEC 2011-S97
    0.00196 2008 Apr. 7.67 2008 GF1 28.3 MPEC 2008-G28
    0.00196 2009 May 5.82 2009 JF1 27.1 MPEC 2009-J26
    0.00197 2008 Jan. 31.55 2008 BC15 26.7 MPEC 2008-B63
    0.00198 2004 Oct. 24.73 2004 UH1 28.1 MPEC 2004-U29

    0.00204 2009 Oct. 8.99 2009 TU 27.4 MPEC 2009-T34
    0.00205 2007 Feb. 21.41 2007 DN41 26.7 MPEC 2007-D64
    0.00205++ 2001 Jan. 15.85 2001 BA16 25.8 MPEC 2001-B35
    0.00206 2009 Nov. 15.62 2009 WP6 26.8 MPEC 2009-W40
    0.00212 2012 June 21.11 2012 MF7 26.8 MPEC 2012-M49
    0.00213 2011 Jan. 17.97 2011 AN52 28.7 MPEC 2011-A71
    0.00213 2012 Jan. 20.30 2012 BV1 31.0 MPEC 2012-B16
    0.00215 2011 Mar. 16.89 2011 EB74 26.9 MPEC 2011-E86
    0.00216 2006 Nov. 16.65 2006 WP1 28.2 MPEC 2006-W33
    0.00217 2004 Dec. 16.80 2004 XB45 26.6 MPEC 2004-X71
    0.00217 2007 Jan. 18.12 2007 BD 26.0 MPEC 2007-B15
    0.00217 2011 Nov. 8.98(308635) 2005 YU55 21.9 MPEC 2005-Y47
    0.00219 2008 Mar. 23.41 2008 FK 27.3 MPEC 2008-F44
    0.00221 2003 Apr. 29.27 2003 HW10 27.2 MPEC 2003-H37
    0.00221 2010 Oct. 11.05 2010 TN55 27.1 MPEC 2010-T112
    0.00222 2006 Nov. 20.24 2006 WX29 27.9 MPEC 2006-W88
    0.00222 2007 Feb. 11.53 2007 CC27 26.8 MPEC 2007-C27
    0.00222 2008 Oct. 18.69 2008 UA202 29.4 MPEC 2008-V06
    0.00224 2011 July 24.81 2011 PU1 25.2 MPEC 2011-P36
    0.00225 2006 Jan. 28.31 2006 BV39 29.2 MPEC 2006-B62
    0.00226 2009 Mar. 6.15 2009 EW 26.3 MPEC 2009-E23
    0.00231 2011 June 2.04 2009 BD 28.2 MPEC 2009-B14
    0.00232 2009 Oct. 17.15 2009 TM8 28.3 MPEC 2009-T65
    0.00232 2011 May 5.72 2011 JV10 29.7 MPEC 2011-J37
    0.00233 2006 Nov. 21.42 2006 WV 27.2 MPEC 2006-W24
    0.00233 2010 Feb. 17.31 2010 CK19 27.9 MPEC 2010-C69
    0.00235 2009 Nov. 16.77 2009 WQ6 29.2 MPEC 2009-W41
    0.00238 2008 Jan. 16.82 2008 BW2 29.7 MPEC 2008-B33
    0.00238 2011 Jan. 20.35 2011 BY10 27.0 MPEC 2011-B32
    0.00243 2011 Dec. 3.64 2011 XC2 22.6 MPEC 2011-X35
    0.00245 2010 Oct. 17.06 2010 TE55 28.1 MPEC 2010-T105
    0.00246 2004 Sept.13.65 2004 RU109 26.5 MPEC 2004-R63
    0.00246 2004 Sept.21.98 2004 ST26 26.3 MPEC 2004-S55
    0.00247 2007 Oct. 17.62 2007 UO6 27.3 MPEC 2007-U56
    0.00248 2008 Feb. 15.01 2008 CK70 25.3 MPEC 2008-C69
    0.00251 2008 Jan. 13.38 2008 AF3 26.5 MPEC 2008-A39
    0.00251 2009 Mar. 19.97 2009 FK 28.2 MPEC 2009-F15
    0.00257 2008 Feb. 6.95 2008 CE22 26.4 MPEC 2008-C56
    0.00257 2010 May 17.29 2010 JL88 26.8 MPEC 2010-K07
    0.00258 2010 Feb. 21.95 2010 DJ1 26.8 MPEC 2010-D43
    0.00259 2007 Jan. 19.64 2007 BB 27.6 MPEC 2007-B13
    0.00262 2011 Dec. 14.60 2011 YQ1 25.6 MPEC 2011-Y10
    0.00263 2007 Dec. 15.02 2007 YN1 25.0 MPEC 2007-Y29
    0.00266 2009 Feb. 26.94 2009 DT43 26.7 MPEC 2009-D74
    0.00269 2008 Nov. 16.23 2008 WO2 29.8 MPEC 2008-W24
    0.00270 2010 Nov. 27.77 2010 WK1 28.2 MPEC 2010-W42
    0.00271 2011 Dec. 30.85 2012 AP10 26.2 MPEC 2012-A48
    0.00272 2011 Dec. 7.28 2003 XV 26.7 MPEC 2003-X28
    0.00274 2009 Apr. 24.79 2009 HW67 26.1 MPEC 2009-H73
    0.00282 2002 Mar. 31.15 2002 GQ 26.3 MPEC 2002-G16
    0.00286 2010 Oct. 22.63 2010 TG19 24.0 MPEC 2010-T52
    0.00287 2007 Dec. 25.65 2007 YS56 25.6 MPEC 2008-A13
    0.00289 2006 July 3.18 2004 XP14 19.4 MPEC 2006-M49
    0.00289+ 1995 Mar. 27.15 1995 FF 26.5 MPEC 1995-F05
    0.00290 2006 May 10.01 2006 JY26 28.8 MPEC 2006-J38
    0.00290 2010 Apr. 9.09 2010 GA6 26.0 MPEC 2010-G23
    0.00291 2008 June 1.16 2008 LD 28.9 MPEC 2008-L12
    0.00295 2012 Apr. 4.91 2012 FA57 25.9 MPEC 2012-F103
    0.00298 2009 Apr. 1.00 2008 FP32 27.7 MPEC 2009-F99

    0.00303 1996 May 19.69 1996 JA1 20.5 MPEC 1996-K01
    0.00303 2006 Jan. 31.52 2006 BH99 27.3 MPEC 2006-B85
    0.00306 2003 Dec. 6.95 2003 XV 26.7 MPEC 2003-X28
    0.00306** 1991 Dec. 5.39 1991 VG 28.8 IAUC 5387
    0.00307 2012 Apr. 17.97 2012 HG2 27.0 MPEC 2012-H35
    0.00308 2012 Jan. 20.02 2012 BL14 28.2 MPEC 2012-B47
    0.00309 2006 Sept.24.26 2006 SR131 28.0 MPEC 2006-S71
    0.00310 2011 Sept.24.34 2011 SO189 26.5 MPEC 2011-S106
    0.00311 2002 Mar. 8.04 2002 EM7 24.4 MPEC 2002-E48
    0.00311 2009 Sept.28.23 2009 SN103 27.7 MPEC 2009-S100
    0.00313 2009 Mar. 20.18 2009 DO111 22.6 MPEC 2009-E70
    0.00315 2009 Apr. 27.54 2009 HK73 26.2 MPEC 2009-H79
    0.00318 2006 Oct. 2.98 2006 SO198 23.9 MPEC 2006-S106
    0.00319 2011 Sept.27.92 2011 SC108 27.9 MPEC 2011-S84
    0.00321 2002 Feb. 8.80 2002 CB26 26.9 MPEC 2002-C76
    0.00323 2007 Mar. 18.84 2007 EO88 26.7 MPEC 2007-F18
    0.00325 2009 Apr. 23.05 2009 HJ21 27.5 MPEC 2009-H34
    0.00326 2004 Feb. 24.30 2004 DA53 28.0 MPEC 2004-D46
    0.00329 2010 May 21.33 2010 KQ 28.3 MPEC 2010-K15
    0.00331 2003 June 1.22 2003 LW2 26.2 MPEC 2003-L16
    0.00332 2000 June 2.90 2000 LG6 29.0 MPEC 2000-L28
    0.00335 2010 Mar. 4.77 2010 ES12 25.6 MPEC 2010-E37
    0.00339 2011 Jan. 9.85 2011 AZ22 28.6 MPEC 2011-A44
    0.00340 2006 Jan. 22.14 2006 BA 27.6 MPEC 2006-B10
    0.00340 2011 Oct. 24.34 2011 UC64 27.8 MPEC 2011-U59
    0.00343 2009 May 24.94 2009 KW2 26.3 MPEC 2009-K29
    0.00345 2012 June 29.95 2012 MY2 26.2 MPEC 2012-M26
    0.00346 2005 Nov 12.15 2005 VN5 27.0 MPEC 2005-V73
    0.00346 2010 Nov. 13.64 2010 VW194 26.3 MPEC 2010-W04
    0.00352 2008 Mar. 10.35 2008 ED8 24.3 MPEC 2008-E72
    0.00353 2002 Aug. 18.33 2002 NY40 18.9 MPEC 2002-O17
    0.00356 2011 Apr. 15.80 2011 GP59 24.3 MPEC 2011-G60
    0.00356 2012 Mar. 2.17 2012 EP10 29.3 MPEC 2012-F06
    0.00359 2009 Nov. 9.55 2009 VT1 29.4 MPEC 2009-V42
    0.00362 2003 Mar. 3.26 2003 DW10 25.9 MPEC 2003-D33
    0.00364 2008 Nov. 28.16 2008 WG96 26.2 MPEC 2008-X12
    0.00367 2003 Mar. 5.85 2003 DY15 26.2 MPEC 2003-E02
    0.00368 2012 Mar. 15.88 2012 EN5 27.3 MPEC 2012-E59
    0.00370 2008 Jan. 29.36 2007 TU24 20.1 MPEC 2007-T86
    0.00371 2007 Apr. 22.68 2007 HV4 28.7 MPEC 2007-H34
    0.00371 2012 May 23.72 2012 KT12 26.3 MPEC 2012-K39
    0.00372 2012 Apr. 28.42 2012 HM 24.1 MPEC 2012-H13
    0.00374 2008 Nov. 4.02 2008 VB4 28.2 MPEC 2008-V36
    0.00375 2009 Dec. 12.63 2009 YS 25.3 MPEC 2009-Y31
    0.00375 2011 Nov. 24.33 2011 WP4 26.7 MPEC 2011-W25
    0.00376 2005 Oct. 14.85 2005 TC51 27.3 MPEC 2005-T91
    0.00378 2004 June 21.86 2004 MR1 25.6 MPEC 2004-M28
    0.00378 2008 Feb. 10.51 2008 CF22 25.9 MPEC 2008-C57
    0.00378 2011 Mar. 9.97 2011 EV73 28.4 MPEC 2011-E83
    0.00378 2011 Nov. 25.58 2011 WN69 26.2 MPEC 2011-W78
    0.00380 1999 May 6.14 2000 SG344 24.5 MPEC 2000-U24
    0.00381 2012 Feb. 22.69 2012 DJ54 29.0 MPEC 2012-D104
    0.00384 2010 Mar. 18.84 2010 FU9 26.9 MPEC 2010-F57
    0.00385 2008 Oct. 19.39 2008 UR2 26.9 MPEC 2008-U46
    0.00385 2008 Sept.20.59 2008 ST1 26.9 MPEC 2008-S41
    0.00395 2011 Mar. 23.89 2011 FQ6 27.7 MPEC 2011-F34
    0.00396 2011 Mar. 23.10 2011 FQ21 28.2 MPEC 2011-F50
    0.00397 2008 Nov. 2.32 2008 UT95 27.3 MPEC 2008-U101

    0.00401 2006 Dec. 16.26 2006 XR4 26.2 MPEC 2006-Y08
    0.00404 2008 Apr. 9.82 2008 GY21 27.6 MPEC 2008-G80
    0.00411 2004 Aug. 11.84 2004 PZ19 24.5 MPEC 2004-P33
    0.00411 2011 Apr. 21.60 2011 HN24 27.5 MPEC 2011-H61
    0.00412 2009 Mar. 8.26 2009 EH1 27.9 MPEC 2009-E34
    0.00414 2008 Feb 3.31 2008 EA9 27.7 MPEC 2008-E79
    0.00416 2007 Feb. 8.24 2007 DC 27.5 MPEC 2007-D14
    0.00416 2007 May 9.00 2007 JB21 25.1 MPEC 2007-J53
    0.00416 2010 Dec. 1.26 2010 WG1 27.2 MPEC 2010-W39
    0.00417 2007 Oct. 5.89 2007 TL16 26.0 MPEC 2007-T53
    0.00417 2009 Mar. 27.65 2009 FD 22.1 MPEC 2009-F09
    0.00418 2011 Mar. 11.43 2011 EU20 27.3 MPEC 2011-E46
    0.00418 2012 June 10.78 2012 LJ 25.6 MPEC 2012-L18
    0.00420 2011 Apr. 25.60 2011 JA 21.3 MPEC 2011-J05
    0.00421 2012 Mar. 14.73 2012 FG 26.2 MPEC 2012-F22
    0.00423 2003 Dec. 27.0 2003 YS70 28.4 MPEC 2003-Y57
    0.00423 2009 Oct. 31.49 2009 UW87 27.9 MPEC 2009-U119
    0.00434 2009 Feb. 2.63 2009 BK58 25.8 MPEC 2009-B81
    0.00444 2012 Jan. 26.25 2012 BW13 27.1 MPEC 2012-B34
    0.00445 2004 Feb. 1.99 2004 BK86 25.4 MPEC 2004-B79
    0.00446 2010 Dec. 17.38 2010 XM56 24.9 MPEC 2010-X97
    0.00448 2006 June 28.31 2006 MB14 25.4 MPEC 2006-N04
    0.00450 2009 Nov. 17.56 2009 WW7 28.9 MPEC 2009-W51
    0.00454 2003 Nov. 30.80 2003 WT153 28.4 MPEC 2003-W75
    0.00456 2011 Mar. 6.48 2011 EO11 27.1 MPEC 2011-E27
    0.00457 1989 Mar. 22.90 (4581) Asclepius 1989 FC 20.5 IAUC 4767
    0.00458 2007 Mar. 10.04 2007 EK26 25.1 MPEC 2007-E62
    0.00458 2009 Jan. 25.28 2009 BD 28.2 MPEC 2009-B14
    0.00460 2007 Feb. 18.21 2007 DS7 25.6 MPEC 2007-D31
    0.00462 2010 Sept. 5.98 2010 RM80 27.8 MPEC 2010-R94
    0.00464 2004 Mar. 25.79 2004 FM32 27.2 MPEC 2004-G01
    0.00464 2008 Nov. 18.10 2004 XK3 24.3 MPEC 2008-W18
    0.00466 2004 May 31.88 2004 KF17 26.1 MPEC 2004-K73
    0.00466 2010 May 8.51 2010 JA 27.0 MPEC 2010-J14
    0.00466 2011 Oct. 26.55 2011 UC190 26.2 MPEC 2011-U99
    0.00468 2010 Nov. 2.58 2010 VZ11 25.3 MPEC 2010-V56
    0.00470 2008 Dec. 6.68 2008 XK 27.2 MPEC 2008-X23
    0.00472 2009 Jan. 24.08 2009 BH11 25.8 MPEC 2009-B59
    0.00474 1994 Nov. 24.85 1994 WR12 22.0 MPEC 1994-Y05
    0.00474 2007 Feb. 12.86 2007 CC19 27.0 MPEC 2007-C49
    0.00479 2012 Mar. 1.03 2012 DS32 26.3 MPEC 2012-D80
    0.00480 2010 Feb. 13.14 2010 CS19 28.1 MPEC 2010-C77
    0.00483 2012 Mar. 24.84 2012 FT35 29.2 MPEC 2012-F82
    0.00484 2001 Nov. 29.33 2001 WM15 24.9 MPEC 2001-W65
    0.00486 2005 June 21.48 2005 MA 26.8 MPEC 2005-M09
    0.00488 2011 Oct. 13.62 2011 UD21 28.6 MPEC 2011-U32
    0.00489 2012 Jan. 20.92 2012 BF27 26.1 MPEC 2012-B58
    0.00490 2006 Apr. 18.35 2006 HF6 24.2 MPEC 2006-H25
    0.00491 2010 Nov. 5.69 2010 VQ98 27.9 MPEC 2010-V114
    0.00495 1937 Oct. 30.71 (69230) Hermes 1937 UB 17.5 IAUC 689
    0.00496 2000 Dec. 22.29 2000 YA 23.8 MPEC 2000-Y26

    0.0050 1995 Oct. 17.2 1995 UB 27.5 MPEC 1995-U01
    0.00500 2009 Sept.11.66 2009 RY3 24.7 MPEC 2009-R59
    0.00501 2006 Jan. 25.62 2006 BO7 29.3 MPEC 2006-B33
    0.00502 2010 Sept.26.38 2010 TD 26.8 MPEC 2010-T09
    0.00503 2006 Mar. 7.50 2006 EH1 26.5 MPEC 2006-E29
    0.00503 2012 Feb. 21.76 2012 DX 27.0 MPEC 2012-D23
    0.00504 2009 Dec. 15.17 2009 XR1 29.2 MPEC 2009-X36
    0.00508 2012 Apr. 27.27 2012 HP13 24.2 MPEC 2012-H60
    0.00509 2005 Nov. 27.92 2005 WY 27.1 MPEC 2005-W64
    0.00509 2005 Oct. 3.73 2005 TA 27.3 MPEC 2005-T14
    0.00509 2008 Mar. 7.56 2008 EC32 26.7 MPEC 2008-E90
    0.00509 2010 Apr. 3.81 2010 GH7 27.6 MPEC 2010-G39
    0.00510 2002 Oct. 2.08 2002 TY59 25.9 MPEC 2002-T29
    0.00511 2005 Oct. 26.22 2005 UE1 26.1 MPEC 2005-U46
    0.00511 2010 May 21.25 2010 KK37 25.6 MPEC 2010-K46
    0.00511 2011 Feb. 18.61 2011 DS 27.0 MPEC 2011-D31
    0.00512 2005 July 10.06 2005 ND63 26.2 MPEC 2005-N68
    0.00513 2011 Nov. 21.95 2011 WQ4 26.9 MPEC 2011-W26
    0.00518 2009 Oct. 20.44 2009 UD 27.2 MPEC 2009-U10
    0.00519 2006 Sept.13.64 2006 SC 25.3 MPEC 2006-S10
    0.00519 2010 Dec. 25.88 2010 YO 24.6 MPEC 2010-Y33
    0.00520 2004 Oct. 28.69 2004 UT1 26.6 MPEC 2004-U25
    0.00520 2012 May 28.02 2012 KC45 29.4 MPEC 2012-K73
    0.00522 2012 Jan. 24.37 2012 BY1 26.0 MPEC 2012-B18
    0.00526 2003 Aug. 27.39 2003 QB30 26.3 MPEC 2003-Q33
    0.00526 2006 Feb. 25.68 2006 DO62 28.5 MPEC 2006-D52
    0.00528 2001 Nov. 20.86 2001 WJ4 27.4 MPEC 2001-W48
    0.00529 2002 Oct. 1.25 2002 TX55 23.7 MPEC 2002-T13
    0.00529 2004 Nov. 12.54 2004 VM24 25.5 MPEC 2004-V50
    0.00531 2004 Mar. 17.32 2004 FY3 25.0 MPEC 2004-F42
    0.00535 2010 Apr. 5.46 2010 GV23 27.7 MPEC 2010-G73
    0.00536 2004 Aug. 15.31 2004 PU42 27.0 MPEC 2004-P47
    0.00538 2011 Apr. 1.13 2011 FA23 28.9 MPEC 2011-F57
    0.00539 1998 June 8.24 1998 KY26 25.5 MPEC 1998-L02
    0.00544 2007 Apr. 16.03 2007 GU1 24.7 MPEC 2007-G28
    0.00545 2005 Nov. 5.80 2005 VO 27.8 MPEC 2005-V40
    0.00551 2006 Jan. 15.67 2006 BW7 26.6 MPEC 2006-B43
    0.00551 2009 Jan. 23.24 2009 BE 26.0 MPEC 2009-B15
    0.00557 2002 Jan. 7.32 2001 YB5 20.2 MPEC 2001-Y51
    0.00562 2010 Sept. 9.69 2010 RS80 26.4 MPEC 2010-R101
    0.00563 2008 Apr. 28.05 2008 HC38 26.1 MPEC 2008-J13
    0.00563 2010 Sept.10.65 2010 RM82 25.7 MPEC 2010-R104
    0.00564 2009 Feb. 23.37 2009 DM40 26.8 MPEC 2009-D66
    0.00564 2010 Oct. 16.70 2010 UK 26.8 MPEC 2010-U17
    0.00570 2009 Feb. 24.54 2009 DU10 26.8 MPEC 2009-D51
    0.00572 2004 Dec. 13.49 2004 YC 25.7 MPEC 2004-Y07
    0.00573 2008 Mar. 9.82 2008 EZ84 26.2 MPEC 2008-E115
    0.00573 2011 Jan. 26.91 2011 AL37 24.0 MPEC 2011-A63
    0.00574 2012 Jan. 16.54 2012 AQ10 26.5 MPEC 2012-A53
    0.00578 2005 Dec. 9.05 2005 XX 26.8 MPEC 2005-X17
    0.00578 2006 Jan. 20.55 2006 BM8 25.2 MPEC 2006-B50
    0.00581 2009 Sept.14.57 2009 SH1 29.4 MPEC 2009-S39
    0.00584 2009 Oct. 19.72 2009 UE 25.1 MPEC 2009-U11
    0.00585 2011 Dec. 2.48 2011 WV74 27.3 MPEC 2011-X02
    0.00586 2008 Sept. 7.52 2008 ST7 24.0 MPEC 2008-S56
    0.00588 2010 Oct. 14.90 2010 UC 27.4 MPEC 2010-U10
    0.00591 2006 Oct. 16.57 2006 UU17 26.3 MPEC 2006-U41
    0.00593 2008 July 23.40 2008 OO8 25.2 MPEC 2008-O60
    0.00594 2007 Mar. 15.67 2007 FS3 26.1 MPEC 2007-F59
    0.00594 2009 June 24.70 2009 MU 24.5 MPEC 2009-M19
    0.00595 2001 Feb. 23.06 2001 DZ76 25.3 MPEC 2001-D33
    0.00597 2005 Mar. 19.25 2005 FA 25.0 MPEC 2005-F09
    0.00597 2010 Jan. 21.36 2010 AF40 25.0 MPEC 2010-A68

    0.00601 2007 Mar. 13.19 2007 EN88 26.6 MPEC 2007-F17
    0.00601 2010 Oct. 10.95 2010 TO55 26.5 MPEC 2010-T113
    0.00603 2010 Apr. 21.00 2010 HF 25.9 MPEC 2010-H18
    0.00612 2008 Feb. 23.75 2008 EL68 27.7 MPEC 2008-E96
    0.00612 2008 Sept.23.55 2008 SA 25.0 MPEC 2008-S14
    0.00615 2009 Jan. 22.82 2009 BF58 27.3 MPEC 2009-B77
    0.00616 2007 Feb. 8.29 2007 CT26 23.2 MPEC 2007-C62
    0.00617 2010 Aug. 27.68 2010 RZ11 26.6 MPEC 2010-R29
    0.00619 2012 Jan. 31.93 2012 CU 25.8 MPEC 2012-C21
    0.00622 2006 Jan. 21.47 2006 BY8 26.4 MPEC 2006-B53
    0.00624 2009 Jan. 17.45 2009 BS5 27.4 MPEC 2009-B37
    0.00628 2001 Oct. 21.36 2001 UP 25.7 MPEC 2001-U24
    0.00629 2011 Feb. 26.48 2011 EB 27.0 MPEC 2011-E04
    0.00631 2008 Mar. 17.11 2008 ED85 29.9 MPEC 2008-E119
    0.00632 2008 Apr. 27.05 2008 HU4 28.1 MPEC 2008-J04
    0.00634 2004 Aug. 24.50 2004 QA22 27.6 MPEC 2004-Q55
    0.00636 2008 Feb. 15.36 2008 CM74 28.1 MPEC 2008-C76
    0.00638 2008 Apr. 29.67 2008 JC 26.4 MPEC 2008-J06
    0.00640 2011 June 20.20 2011 MX 26.9 MPEC 2011-M36
    0.00640 2012 Mar. 12.61 2012 DW60 26.5 MPEC 2012-E05
    0.00642 2006 May 9.10 2006 JV26 25.2 MPEC 2006-J37
    0.00642 2010 Sept. 4.94 2010 RB12 26.9 MPEC 2010-R31
    0.00643 2001 Oct. 8.65 2001 TB 24.4 MPEC 2001-T21
    0.00643 2011 Feb. 10.05 2011 CZ3 26.6 MPEC 2011-C22
    0.00644 2010 Oct. 27.65 2010 UR7 27.3 MPEC 2010-U69
    0.00649 2012 Feb. 22.96 2012 DZ 26.0 MPEC 2012-D25
    0.00650 2010 Mar. 12.46 2010 FD6 26.7 MPEC 2010-F44
    0.00652 2007 Sept.16.59 2007 RJ1 25.1 MPEC 2007-R13
    0.00654 2006 June 21.21 2006 MV1 26.6 MPEC 2006-M21
    0.00655 2009 Oct. 1.82 2009 SU104 25.3 MPEC 2009-S121
    0.00656 2002 Feb. 5.47 2002 CA26 27.3 MPEC 2002-C75
    0.00656 2010 Nov. 10.02 2010 VL65 28.4 MPEC 2010-V86
    0.00660 2011 Nov. 19.58 2011 WF44 25.0 MPEC 2011-W61
    0.00662 2008 Apr. 8.02 2008 GB21 25.8 MPEC 2008-G72
    0.00664 2002 Oct. 5.50 2002 TZ66 25.7 MPEC 2002-T46
    0.00665 2009 Nov. 12.53 2009 VX 26.1 MPEC 2009-V34
    0.00666 1993 Oct. 18.79 1993 UA 25.0 MPEC 1993-U05
    0.00666 2011 Nov. 20.51 2011 WJ15 25.2 MPEC 2011-W39
    0.00672 2010 June 30.06 2010 NH 25.5 MPEC 2010-N16
    0.00672 2011 Feb. 20.42 2011 CF66 27.4 MPEC 2011-C94
    0.00673 2012 Mar. 3.41 2012 EA 26.8 MPEC 2012-E06
    0.00678 2012 Jan. 26.72 2012 BA102 26.5 MPEC 2012-B113
    0.00679 1999 Feb. 4.08 1999 CQ2 27.5 MPEC 1999-C17
    0.00684 2004 Oct. 6.31 2004 TE10 24.3 MPEC 2004-T31
    0.00686 2011 Apr. 8.98 2011 GZ2 26.1 MPEC 2011-G22
    0.00689 1994 Apr. 12.13 1994 GV 27.5 MPEC 1994-G06
    0.00691 2005 Apr. 7.59 2005 GB34 25.8 MPEC 2005-G49
    0.00691 2010 May 4.95 2010 JW34 28.0 MPEC 2010-J58
    0.00693 2008 Sept.28.63 2008 TL 27.5 MPEC 2008-T22
    0.00693 2010 Nov. 14.98 2010 UE51 28.2 MPEC 2010-V32
    0.00696 2010 Jan. 14.57 2010 AG30 27.0 MPEC 2010-A56
    0.00697 2012 Apr. 30.35 2012 HE31 25.8 MPEC 2012-H82

    0.00700 2004 Apr. 26.24 2004 HT59 27.0 MPEC 2004-H86
    0.00701 2006 Apr. 22.57 2006 HE2 26.5 MPEC 2006-H15
    0.00705 2009 Jan. 9.82 2008 YV32 26.1 MPEC 2009-A08
    0.00705 2010 Dec. 2.05 2010 XA11 26.1 MPEC 2010-X55
    0.00706 2005 Feb. 1.78 2005 CM7 26.3 MPEC 2005-C22
    0.00709 1981 May 18.21 (143651) 2003 QO104 16.0 MPEC 2003-R13
    0.00709 2003 Sept.27.19 2003 SR84 25.0 MPEC 2003-S39
    0.0071 1993 May 17.9 1993 KA 26.0 IAUC 5797
    0.0071 1997 Oct. 26.2 1997 UA11 25.0 MPEC 1997-V05
    0.00716 2010 Dec. 22.51 2010 XO69 27.1 MPEC 2010-Y04
    0.00717 2008 Apr. 29.81 2008 HJ 25.6 MPEC 2008-H26
    0.00720 2009 Sept.16.33 2009 RR 25.6 MPEC 2009-R39
    0.00723 2010 Aug. 9.83 2010 PJ9 24.6 MPEC 2010-P28
    0.00724 2009 Nov. 21.43 2009 WD54 28.7 MPEC 2009-W91
    0.00726 2005 Oct. 20.96 2005 UA1 26.3 MPEC 2005-U40
    0.00727 2009 Mar. 17.15 2009 FW4 24.6 MPEC 2009-F40
    0.00728 2004 Feb. 17.04 2004 DF2 26.1 MPEC 2004-D17
    0.00731 2006 Sept.28.51 2006 SN198 26.1 MPEC 2006-S105
    0.00731 2009 Sept.30.57 2009 SH2 24.4 MPEC 2009-S51
    0.00731 2010 Nov. 15.95 2010 VK139 23.4 MPEC 2010-V131
    0.00732 2010 Apr. 8.95 2010 GF7 25.7 MPEC 2010-G37
    0.00733 2009 May 29.39 2009 LA 26.3 MPEC 2009-L04
    0.00736 1997 Feb. 9.78 1997 CD17 27.5 MPEC 1997-C10
    0.00736 2010 Dec. 13.52 2010 WA9 25.5 MPEC 2010-X05
    0.00737 2008 May 7.07 2008 JP24 26.6 MPEC 2008-J63
    0.00737 2011 Dec. 26.23 2000 YA 23.8 MPEC 2000-Y26
    0.00738 2012 May 2.46 2012 HA34 25.3 MPEC 2012-J02
    0.00740 2003 Oct. 27.30 2003 UT55 26.8 MPEC 2003-U96
    0.00746 2006 May 17.95 2006 KB1 24.4 MPEC 2006-K22
    0.00748 2009 Sept. 6.19 2009 SD 25.4 MPEC 2009-S07
    0.00749 2009 Dec. 1.58 2009 WV25 23.9 MPEC 2009-W71
    0.00749 2011 May 1.32 2011 JM5 26.2 MPEC 2011-J29
    0.00750 2009 Sept. 2.48 2009 QC35 25.2 MPEC 2009-Q79
    0.00752 2010 Oct. 6.81 2010 TW149 25.9 MPEC 2010-T102
    0.00754 2005 Aug. 31.91 2005 QP87 27.6 MPEC 2005-R03
    0.00755 2008 July 27.57 2008 OY2 27.2 MPEC 2008-O43
    0.00759 2006 May 6.61 2006 HX57 25.0 MPEC 2006-J04
    0.00760 2007 Nov. 10.86 2007 VX83 27.8 MPEC 2007-V66
    0.00762 2005 Mar. 8.76 2005 EM169 25.1 MPEC 2005-E77
    0.00763 2007 Oct. 18.86 2007 TW24 26.0 MPEC 2007-T88
    0.00764 2006 Oct. 4.74 2006 TR7 25.6 MPEC 2006-T67
    0.00764 2008 Sept.25.30 2008 TE 27.7 MPEC 2008-T17
    0.00765 2007 Oct. 29.79 2007 VL3 26.1 MPEC 2007-V26
    0.00765 2012 Aug. 12.95 2012 PZ17 26.8 MPEC 2012-P38
    0.00775 1976 Oct. 20.70 (2340) Hathor 1976 UA 20.26 IAUC 3028
    0.00775 2006 Feb. 23.12 2006 DR14 26.1 MPEC 2006-D42
    0.00777 2004 May 18.01 2004 JP1 22.4 MPEC 2004-J50
    0.00777 2008 Apr. 23.26 2008 GD110 24.5 MPEC 2008-G87
    0.00777 2008 Mar. 8.92 2008 EG32 27.3 MPEC 2008-E92
    0.00780 2010 Mar. 28.24 2010 FW9 26.7 MPEC 2010-F59
    0.00782 2007 Nov. 14.19 2007 VE138 25.7 MPEC 2007-V86
    0.00785 2008 May 11.68 2008 HR3 24.8 MPEC 2008-H54
    0.00788 2008 Mar. 2.24 2008 DU22 26.3 MPEC 2008-E04
    0.00788 2012 Mar. 25.90 2012 FU23 27.6 MPEC 2012-F65
    0.00792 2003 Sept.16.67 2003 SL36 26.4 MPEC 2003-S31
    0.00792 2012 June 9.09 2012 LA11 26.1 MPEC 2012-M03

    0.00800 2007 Oct. 10.31 2007 TH72 24.3 MPEC 2007-U01
    0.00801 2003 Dec. 30.10 2003 YH111 24.5 MPEC 2003-Y83
    0.00801 2005 May 16.21 2005 JZ93 24.4 MPEC 2005-J59
    0.00801 2012 Jan. 23.90 2012 BS1 28.7 MPEC 2012-B13
    0.00802 2004 Mar. 20.07 2004 FY1 26.3 MPEC 2004-F33
    0.00805 2005 Nov. 13.08 2005 WA 24.0 MPEC 2005-W06
    0.00807 2007 Nov. 14.12 2007 WJ3 26.3 MPEC 2007-W22
    0.00811 2008 Dec. 5.40 2008 WY94 25.5 MPEC 2008-X05
    0.00814 2004 May 17.53 2004 JO20 25.9 MPEC 2004-K01
    0.00817 2002 Apr. 6.16 2002 FD6 22.0 MPEC 2002-F54
    0.00817 2011 May 24.88 2011 KG13 25.7 MPEC 2011-K36
    0.00818 2010 Dec. 5.86 2010 XS45 26.6 MPEC 2010-X88
    0.00822 2005 Oct. 1.86 2005 TH45 26.1 MPEC 2005-T48
    0.00824 2008 Apr. 14.52 2008 GP3 25.4 MPEC 2008-G47
    0.00834 2010 Feb. 19.43 2010 CJ18 26.7 MPEC 2010-C57
    0.00841 2008 Apr. 3.28 2008 GE128 25.8 MPEC 2008-H46
    0.00842 2005 Nov. 23.80 2005 WX 26.6 MPEC 2005-W32
    0.00844 2011 Mar. 8.19 2011 EL40 26.3 MPEC 2011-E55
    0.00845 2009 Apr. 30.27 2009 JS 25.7 MPEC 2009-J23
    0.00846 2007 Mar. 25.89 2007 FR3 27.5 MPEC 2007-F58
    0.00849 2009 Nov. 27.04 2009 WQ52 28.1 MPEC 2009-W83
    0.00850 2011 May 1.53 2011 HP4 27.5 MPEC 2011-H43
    0.00854 2009 Mar. 31.78 2008 FQ32 26.8 MPEC 2009-F100
    0.00854 2012 Mar. 10.38 2012 DH54 27.6 MPEC 2012-D103
    0.00855 2011 Jan. 13.37 2011 AH5 26.5 MPEC 2011-A32
    0.00856 2011 Mar. 8.73 2011 EC12 26.0 MPEC 2011-E31
    0.00859 2008 June 3.87 2008 KT 28.3 MPEC 2008-K48
    0.00862 2009 Nov. 17.20 2009 WR52 28.0 MPEC 2009-W84
    0.00862 2012 Feb. 21.29 2012 DF4 26.0 MPEC 2012-D29
    0.00867 2012 Jan. 14.36 2012 BO11 26.0 MPEC 2012-B31
    0.00868 2012 May 21.87 2012 KW 26.8 MPEC 2012-K10
    0.00872 2003 Apr. 3.76 2003 GG21 22.0 MPEC 2003-G36
    0.00872 2005 Nov. 8.32 2005 VY1 25.8 MPEC 2005-V50
    0.00873 2009 Aug. 20.67 2009 QR 27.4 MPEC 2009-Q09
    0.00875 2007 Mar. 15.94 2007 FP3 28.4 MPEC 2007-F56
    0.00877 2008 June 9.74 2008 LB 25.8 MPEC 2008-L10
    0.00878 2009 Nov. 2.38 2009 VZ25 26.2 MPEC 2009-V63
    0.00878 2009 Sept.21.81 2009 SP104 26.7 MPEC 2009-S116
    0.00878 2012 Jan. 9.65 2012 AW10 25.7 MPEC 2012-A57
    0.00879 1999 Mar. 12.86 1999 FR5 23.8 MPEC 1999-F21
    0.00880 2010 Apr. 13.10 2010 GM23 24.8 MPEC 2010-G61
    0.00882 2005 Dec. 16.80 2005 YK 26.9 MPEC 2005-Y16
    0.00885 2008 Oct. 28.31 2008 UW99 24.6 MPEC 2008-U107
    0.00886 2007 Mar. 20.64 2007 FC3 25.5 MPEC 2007-F43
    0.00888 2011 Oct. 21.30 2011 UL10 25.3 MPEC 2011-U22
    0.00892 2001 Dec. 15.15 2001 YN2 25.4 MPEC 2001-Y26
    0.00896 2011 July 30.98 2011 PE2 22.9 MPEC 2011-P40
    0.00898 2001 Aug. 15.48 2001 QE71 24.6 MPEC 2001-Q30

    0.00902 2008 Nov. 27.95 2008 WM61 26.8 MPEC 2008-W66
    0.00903 2009 Mar. 11.27 2009 EU 26.5 MPEC 2009-E21
    0.00904 2000 Dec. 29.35 2001 AV43 24.8 MPEC 2001-A52
    0.00908 2009 Oct. 24.26 2009 UU1 24.7 MPEC 2009-U34
    0.00909 2003 Sept.30.70 2003 SM215 27.5 MPEC 2003-S81
    0.00915 2008 Oct. 23.01 2008 TT26 23.9 MPEC 2008-T120
    0.00919 2007 Feb. 7.44 2007 BZ48 25.9 MPEC 2007-B54
    0.00920 2008 Dec. 25.61 2008 YH30 26.9 MPEC 2008-Y84
    0.00921 2012 Mar. 28.66 2012 GE 26.7 MPEC 2012-G16
    0.00923 2006 Nov. 11.39 2006 VE13 26.6 MPEC 2006-V56
    0.00924 2007 Nov. 10.93 2007 WT3 24.1 MPEC 2007-W29
    0.00926 2008 Mar. 11.47 2008 EJ85 25.2 MPEC 2008-E125
    0.00926 2012 Mar. 21.72 2012 EO8 24.3 MPEC 2012-F01
    0.00927 2012 Feb. 5.93 2012 CQ46 27.2 MPEC 2012-D17
    0.00930 2003 June 20.27 2003 ME1 23.6 MPEC 2003-M47
    0.00930 2003 Mar. 22.36 2003 FY6 22.5 MPEC 2003-F61
    0.00931 2010 May 12.70 2010 JO33 25.3 MPEC 2010-J50
    0.00932 2003 Apr. 27.75 2003 JX2 26.4 MPEC 2003-J16
    0.00933 2009 Jan. 4.84 2008 YG30 24.5 MPEC 2008-Y83
    0.00933 2010 Nov. 19.97 2010 WD1 27.5 MPEC 2010-W36
    0.00935 2012 Apr. 3.89 2012 FH58 27.0 MPEC 2012-F111
    0.00937 2012 Jan. 14.50 2012 BU1 27.7 MPEC 2012-B15
    0.00939 2004 June 29.51 2004 MC 23.3 MPEC 2004-M07
    0.00942 2006 Nov. 26.40 2006 WV29 26.5 MPEC 2006-W85
    0.00943 2012 Mar. 19.84 2012 FM35 26.6 MPEC 2012-F75
    0.00943 2012 Mar. 23.99 2012 FX35 25.9 MPEC 2012-F86
    0.00947 2003 Sept.17.01 2003 RU11 25.6 MPEC 2003-S02
    0.00950 2010 Oct. 10.19 2010 TS19 25.7 MPEC 2010-T59
    0.00950 2012 Jan. 4.35 2011 YL28 25.2 MPEC 2011-Y57
    0.00955 2006 Mar. 28.18 2006 FU 25.6 MPEC 2006-F30
    0.00955 2008 Oct. 30.03 2008 VU3 23.2 MPEC 2008-V31
    0.00956 2006 June 7.69 2006 LM 25.0 MPEC 2006-L24
    0.00957 2010 Sept.30.45 2010 TN4 27.2 MPEC 2010-T23
    0.00958 2011 June 3.54 2011 KE15 26.9 MPEC 2011-K40
    0.00959 2010 Dec. 1.38 2010 XX 27.1 MPEC 2010-X33
    0.00960 2009 Nov. 16.85 2009 WX7 26.7 MPEC 2009-W52
    0.00966 2004 Feb. 1.80 2004 CA2 23.4 MPEC 2004-C50
    0.00975 2008 Oct. 19.73 2008 UF1 26.0 MPEC 2008-U39
    0.00981 2006 Sept.19.27 2006 SB 25.8 MPEC 2006-S09
    0.00981 2009 May 26.82 2009 LD 26.2 MPEC 2009-L08
    0.00983 2001 Feb. 26.72 2001 EC 18.5 MPEC 2001-E17
    0.00983 2006 May 4.59 2006 HU50 24.7 MPEC 2006-H50
    0.00984 1988 Sept.29.09 1988 TA 21.0 ***
    0.00987 2009 Apr. 31.64 2008 FO32 25.7 MPEC 2009-F98
    0.00988 2005 Nov. 26.36 2005 WM3 27.7 MPEC 2005-W61
    0.00988 2010 Feb. 22.78 2010 DE2 26.5 MPEC 2010-D57
    0.00989 2009 Feb. 23.09 2009 DC45 27.6 MPEC 2009-D79
    0.00990 2004 Jan. 18.18 2004 BN41 25.4 MPEC 2004-B39
    0.00991 2010 Jan. 12.93 2010 AN60 26.8 MPEC 2010-A83
    0.00997 2005 Nov. 9.97 2005 VG7 24.4 MPEC 2005-V83
    0.00998 2005 Oct. 24.15 2005 UF 26.2 MPEC 2005-U24
    0.00999 2003 May 28.29 2003 LH 24.7 MPEC 2003-L10

    Notes:

    ! This approach took 2008 TC3 into the earth’s atmosphere…………

  7. schotti sagt:

    Gesendet: Dienstag, 01. Januar 2013 um 13:47 Uhr
    Von: „Rainer Schottlaender“
    An: webmaster@ssd.jpl.nasa.gov, iau@iap.fr, donald.k.yeomans@jpl.nasa.gov, juergen.helfricht@bild.de

    Betreff: Take a look on 2012DA14 … Donald Yeomans and IAU

    Please send me your orbit prediction for 2012DA14
    for the years 2014, 2015, 2016….
    http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2012%20DA14;orb=1 :

    2013-Feb-15 19:25 00:02 Earth 0.000233799507126153 0.000181313271702344

    These 0.00018 AU = 27.000 km = 4 times earth radius
    show that there is a good reason to predict this orbit.

  8. schotti sagt:

    Gesendet: Dienstag, 08. Januar 2013 um 01:19 Uhr
    Von: „Rainer Schottlaender“
    An: „Jon Giorgini“ , webmaster@ssd.jpl.nasa.gov, iau@iap.fr, donald.k.yeomans@jpl.nasa.gov, juergen.helfricht@bild.de, „Kaiser, Harald“
    Betreff: The earlier the better … next look on 2012DA14 … Donald Yeomans and IAU
    Dear Jon, dear NASA:
    Although NASA has wrongly evaluated my proposal (see Dr. Jurgen Rahe letter from Aug 13, 1990)
    you have made a lot progress … knowing about 10.000 NEOs now.
    It is still pretty stupid to pay billions for Mars-and-other-missions
    …but just a few millions to work against the NEO threat.
    2012DA14 is a nice example.
    Because of the „Small perturbers: Ceres, Pallas, Vesta {source: SB405-CPV-2}“
    this and many other orbits are hard to predict.
    More observation and computation is needed today and in future.
    Compared with the risk it seems appropriate to have worldwide a few thousand people working on this.
    I do so – a few unpayed minutes ( like this one here) every few weeks.
    Are you aware, Mr. Yeomans , that you cannot detect a NEO which really hits earth with your telescopes ?
    Because this „hit-NEO“ looks like a normal star.
    Copyright:
    http://www.schottie.de
    I have published this EMail here:
    http://www.schottie.de/?p=8979#comment-17558
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    One of the ideas in my proposal A267 to DOD/SBIR and 91-502C to NASA
    was to improve this action :

    Already in the movie METEOR in the 70es USA and USSR send their
    intercontinental rockets to deflect an asteroid.

    On page 41 I calculate what happenes if we ignite an H-bomb
    – on the asteroid surface – after drilling a deep hole into the asteroid.

    This idea, published by me July 5, 1990, was used and probably stolen
    for the movie ARMAGEDDON from Jerry Bruckheimer and the WALT DISNEY COMPANY.

    My result was also published in Heft 2/1991 in ASTRONOMIE & RAUMFAHRT.

    The Walt Disney Company has not payed my invoice and refused in their letter
    from Dec 23, 2002 to tell me the name of the playbook writer
    and from where he got the idea.

    The reason why I do the work to put this here in writing
    is that we are able to avoid such an Armageddon. At the time when I
    wrote my proposal only about 50 NEOs were known.

    As you see here http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/stats/
    today about 900 large and 9000 small NEOs(NEAs) are known. As you learn
    in this statistic 121 of them were found by PAN STARRS.

    I have written to Mr. Kudritzki in Hawaii already 3 unanswered EMails
    that I have published the idea to build an automatized telescope
    checking every night 60 million stars
    already in the year 1990 in my proposal,
    which was wrongly evaluated by NASA , DOD and NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION .

    Compared with other less important scientific tasks
    – 100 billions for a man on Mars ?? –
    there is still not enough attention and financial effort
    – a few million dollars each years – for this task.

    I think it makes sense to try out such a thermonuclear attack on an asteroid.

    More important is to find more of these NEOs.

    Would you accept that only a few cars in the USA have a number sign ?

    Copyright:

    http://www.schottie.de/?p=8979#comments

    Gesendet: Montag, 07. Januar 2013 um 20:10 Uhr
    Von: „Jon Giorgini“
    An: rainer.schottlaender@web.de
    Betreff: Re: next look on 2012DA14 … Donald Yeomans and IAU
    >From: „Rainer Schottlaender“ >To: Jon.Giorgini@jpl.nasa.gov, webmaster@ssd.jpl.nasa.gov, iau@iap.fr, donald.k.yeomans@jpl.nasa.gov, juergen.helfricht@bild.de >Subject: next look on 2012DA14 … Donald Yeomans and IAU >Date: Sun, 6 Jan 2013 17:00:42 +0100 (CET) > >I again ask you to perform an orbit prediction for this Mr. Schottlander, The latest orbit predictions for 2012 DA14 are available on our close approach page and Horizons ephemeris service. You’ve quoted results from both and they are the latest. When more measurements are reported, the orbit solutions will be updated and extended into the future. In particular, we expect high precision radar astrometry in mid February (6 weeks), which will allow prediction much further into the future. The current dataset clearly shows no impact hazard in 2013, but isn’t good enough to predict beyond that. Hence the need for additional measurements when that becomes possible. So check the various ephemeris services in late February for the update. Regards, ——————————————————————————- Jon Giorgini | Navigation & Mission Design Section Senior Analyst | Solar System Dynamics Group Jon.Giorgini@jpl.nasa.gov | Jet Propulsion Laboratory ——————————————————————————-

  9. schotti sagt:

    Gesendet: Freitag, 11. Januar 2013 um 11:59 Uhr
    Von: „Rainer Schottlaender“
    An: Stefan.Kern@bmbf.bund.de, beatrix.vierkorn-rudolph@bmbf.bund.de, karl-eugen.huthmacher@bmbf.bund.de
    Cc: „Jon Giorgini“ , webmaster@ssd.jpl.nasa.gov, iau@iap.fr, donald.k.yeomans@jpl.nasa.gov, juergen.helfricht@bild.de, „Kaiser, Harald“

    Betreff: In which year asteroid 2012DA14 will hit the earth ?

    letter of Prof. Dr. Gerhard Haerendel
    MAX-PLANCK-INSTITUT FÜR EXTRATERRESTRISCHE PHYSIK 85740 Garching am 2. September 1998 :

    Lieber Herr Schottlaender,

    ich bestätige Ihnen gerne, dass Sie Anfang 1990 bei mir waren und mir Ihr Projekt OMNISKOP vorgestellt haben zum Zwecke der frühen Entdeckung von Near-Earth-Objects auf potentiellem Kollisionskurs mit der Erde.

    Ich hatte Ihnen gesagt, dass ein solches Projekt nicht in unser Forschungsprofil passte, und hatte Ihnen geraten, sich an die normalen Förderinstitutionen für wissenschaftliche Projekte mit regelrechtem Mittelantrag zu wenden.

    Ich war allerdings beeindruckt von dem Riecher, den Sie für diese kosmische Gefahr zu einem frühen Zeitpunkt entwickelt haben.

    Mit freundlichen Grüssen G. Haerendel

    Gesendet: Dienstag, 08. Januar 2013 um 01:19 Uhr
    Von: „Rainer Schottlaender“
    An: „Jon Giorgini“ , webmaster@ssd.jpl.nasa.gov, iau@iap.fr, donald.k.yeomans@jpl.nasa.gov, juergen.helfricht@bild.de, „Kaiser, Harald“

    Betreff: The earlier the better … next look on 2012DA14 … Donald Yeomans and IAU

    Dear Jon, dear NASA:

    Although NASA has wrongly evaluated my proposal (see Dr. Jurgen Rahe letter from Aug 13, 1990)
    you have made a lot progress … knowing about 10.000 NEOs now.

    It is still pretty stupid to pay billions for Mars-and-other-missions
    …but just a few millions to work against the NEO threat.

    2012DA14 is a nice example.

    Because of the „Small perturbers: Ceres, Pallas, Vesta {source: SB405-CPV-2}“
    this and many other orbits are hard to predict.

    More observation and computation is needed today and in future.
    Compared with the risk it seems appropriate to have worldwide a few thousand people working on this.

    I do so – a few unpayed minutes ( like this one here) every few weeks.

    Are you aware, Mr. Yeomans , that you cannot detect a NEO which really hits earth with your telescopes ?

    Because this „hit-NEO“ looks like a normal star.

    Copyright:

    http://www.schottie.de
    I have published this EMail here:
    http://www.schottie.de/?p=8979#comment-17558

  10. schotti sagt:

    Gesendet: Sonntag, 13. Januar 2013 um 13:49 Uhr
    Von: „Rainer Schottlaender“
    An: jlgalache@cfa.harvard.edu
    Cc: Stefan.Kern@bmbf.bund.de, beatrix.vierkorn-rudolph@bmbf.bund.de, karl-eugen.huthmacher@bmbf.bund.de, „Jon Giorgini“ , webmaster@ssd.jpl.nasa.gov, iau@iap.fr, donald.k.yeomans@jpl.nasa.gov, juergen.helfricht@bild.de, „Kaiser, Harald“

    Betreff: More about 2012DA14 impact risk

    NASA : You should correct Mr. Galache`s and other mistakes

    Vorbeiflug von 2012DA14 am 15. Februar 2013:

    Ich rege die Aufnahme meiner SLINGSHOT-FORMEL bei Wikipedia an:
    I propose to publish my formulae here on Wikipedia :

    http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing-by

    Der Erdmittelpunkt befinde sich bei x=0 , y=0
    Bei t = 0 befindet sich Asteroid A im Abstand S bei (0,S)
    Vernachlässigt man in 1. Näherung die Veränderung von Vx während des Vorbeifluges
    ergibt die Integration
    Delta Vy = gamma x M / ( S x V )
    Für S = 40.000 km ergibt sich mit Erdmasse M = 6 x 10^24 kg
    und gamma = http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitationskonstante = 6,67 x 10 ^-11 m^3 kg^-1 s^-2
    sowie V = 6 km/s gemäss http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2012da14.html 3
    Delta V in erster Näherung / first approximation zu maximal 1,6 km/s ,
    real am 15. Februar 2013 vermutlich etwa 1 km/s

    http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_keyhole :

    „Der Begriff wurde 1999 von P. W. Chodas geprägt und erlangte im Januar 2005 öffentliches Interesse, als klar wurde, dass die Bahn des erst seit einem halben Jahr bekannten Asteroiden (99942) Apophis im Jahre 2029 zwar nicht mit einem Impakt auf die Erde endet, aber möglicherweise zu einem von mehreren Schlüssellöchern gehören könnte und damit geradewegs zu einem Einschlag im Jahre 2036 oder 2037 führen würde. Dies konnte 2012 durch neue Beobachtungen des Asteroiden ausgeschlossen werden….“
    http://minorplanetcenter.net/blog/tag/2012-da14/

    What about 2047?

    Yes, it’s true, we currently have a scheduled close approach for the beginning of 2047, but it’s impossible to tell how close exactly it will be. Being the cautious astronomers that we are, we will wait until 2012 DA14 passes by next year and use the observations that will be made then to improve our orbit calculations.
    http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/lists/CloseApp.html
    Due to a truncation problem in the main close-approach file that occurred some time ago and to the occasional failure to update these predictions when new orbits were published, we are disabling our on-line lists of close approaches. We apologize for this, but we cannot guarantee the accuracy of the entire current dataset.

    TRUNCATION = ?

    http://minorplanetcenter.net/blog/tag/2012-da14/
    Discovered by La Sagra Observatory (located in the province of Granada in Southern Spain) on February 23, 2012, asteroid 2012 DA14 is an NEA that gets as close as 134 million km (83 million miles) to the Sun, and as far as 166 million km (103 million miles) from it. This means it doesn’t cross the orbit of either Venus or Mars;
    …Even if it were at the larger end of our size estimates, an object with a 75 m diameter would not survive its passage through our atmosphere and thus never reach the ground intact…

    Hier irrt der Autor Mr. J. L. Galache

  11. schotti sagt:

    …. Findings indicate there are roughly 4,700 PHAs, plus or minus 1,500,

    with diameters larger than 330 feet (about 100 meters).

    So far, an estimated 20 to 30 percent of these objects have been found.

    http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2012-138

  12. schotti sagt:

    You wrote:
    „In particular, we expect high precision radar astrometry in mid February (6 weeks), which will allow prediction much further into the future…“
    How exact you can measure ?
    If you just make a little velocity mistake of 0,1 m/s = 10 cm/s for this 6200 m/s NEO 2012DA14
    my foregoing calculation shows
    that you can predict the orbit for the Feb 16, 2046 flyby
    +- 0,3 L(unar) D(istances) = +- 115.000 km
    Your today prediction is
    2046-Feb-16 13:54 14:52 Moon 0.00869194087071029 0.0004150
    These 0.000415 AU = …………62.250 km = about 9 times earth radius and less 115.000 km
    If your radar is worse than 0,1 m/s you can only predict:
    2012DA14 hits earth in 2046 with 1 : 81 probability
    I also wonder that IAU has not published this critical NEO in this list:
    http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/lists/Closest.html

  13. schotti sagt:

    Derzeit laufen weitere zehn Suchprogramme in den USA, Europa und Ostasien, die pro Nacht einige „NEOs“ von 100 Meter bis 1 km Größe finden. Das erfolgreichste Programm heißt LINEAR und arbeitet mit einem 1-m-Spiegelteleskop und CCD-Automatik.

    http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/LONEOS

    Near Earth Asteroid Tracking (NEAT)
    Lincoln Near Earth Asteroid Research (LINEAR)
    OCA – DLR Asteroid Suvvey (ODAS)

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  16. Ward sagt:

    Hi to every one, the contents existing at this web
    page are truly amazing for people experience,
    well, keep up the nice work fellows.

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